7 predictions for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections

Predictions are frankly a fool’s game and are almost never right. But they are fun to make. These are my largely cautious predictions for the vote on Thursday 7 May 2026.

1. An unrepresentative election

This election will be the most disproportional election in the devolution era. The Gallagher index will be over 10.

Serious discussions will need to be had about the ability of the Additional Member System to deliver representative parliaments.

2. No SNP majority

The SNP will not win a majority. They will remain the largest party and form a minority government. Their vote shares will fall and they will win more seats than they would be entitled to proportionally.

There’s a chance they come very close but with the Scottish Greens in with a chance of winning at least one constituency seat, the Lib Dems targeting multiple seats they could well win, and the unpredictability of Reform UK, I just don’t see the SNP quite getting to 65.

John Swinney’s party will get at least 55 seats and have a good chance of getting at least 60. Having won 64 last time, 65 in 2026 still looks highly unlikely, despite some polls pointing to that possibility.

3. Scottish Lib Dems back from the dead

The Scottish Liberal Democrats will win at least 7 seats including Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and at least one regional seat, up from 4 in 2021.

Remarkably, this will be the first time the party has made net gains in any Scottish Parliament election.

4. Scottish Greens will make history

The Scottish Greens will win their first constituency seat. And if they don’t, they’ll come remarkably close.

5. Reform rise…then fall

Reform will be the second largest party at Holyrood, edging out Scottish Labour though I still think there’s a half decent chance of Labour coming second (albeit on fewer seats than in 2021). Reform will pick up at least one constituency seat.

And at least two of their MSPs will become independents by the end of 2026.

6. The end of the Scottish Conservatives as we know them?

The Scottish Conservatives will implode and have serious discussions about separating from the UK party. Murdo Fraser may be booted out of Holyrood, but his long-held ambition to Brexit his party from Kemi Badenoch’s could become a reality.

7. The end of Keir Starmer…?

Despite no obvious candidate to replace Starmer, these elections as well as those for the Senedd and the English locals will force Starmer to resign. Eventually.

At some point, the political pressure will become too great for him not too though it won’t happen over night. For Labour to be in with a chance of winning again in 2029, timing will be everything.