7 predictions for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections

Predictions are frankly a fool’s game and are almost never right. But they are fun to make. These are my largely cautious predictions for the vote on Thursday 7 May 2026.

1. An unrepresentative election

This election will be the most disproportional election in the devolution era. The Gallagher index will be over 10.

Serious discussions will need to be had about the ability of the Additional Member System to deliver representative parliaments.

2. No SNP majority

The SNP will not win a majority. They will remain the largest party and form a minority government. Their vote shares will fall and they will win more seats than they would be entitled to proportionally.

There’s a chance they come very close but with the Scottish Greens in with a chance of winning at least one constituency seat, the Lib Dems targeting multiple seats they could well win, and the unpredictability of Reform UK, I just don’t see the SNP quite getting to 65.

John Swinney’s party will get at least 55 seats and have a good chance of getting at least 60. Having won 64 last time, 65 in 2026 still looks highly unlikely, despite some polls pointing to that possibility.

3. Scottish Lib Dems back from the dead

The Scottish Liberal Democrats will win at least 7 seats including Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and at least one regional seat, up from 4 in 2021.

Remarkably, this will be the first time the party has made net gains in any Scottish Parliament election.

4. Scottish Greens will make history

The Scottish Greens will win their first constituency seat. And if they don’t, they’ll come remarkably close.

5. Reform rise…then fall

Reform will be the second largest party at Holyrood, edging out Scottish Labour though I still think there’s a half decent chance of Labour coming second (albeit on fewer seats than in 2021). Reform will pick up at least one constituency seat.

And at least two of their MSPs will become independents by the end of 2026.

6. The end of the Scottish Conservatives as we know them?

The Scottish Conservatives will implode and have serious discussions about separating from the UK party. Murdo Fraser may be booted out of Holyrood, but his long-held ambition to Brexit his party from Kemi Badenoch’s could become a reality.

7. The end of Keir Starmer…?

Despite no obvious candidate to replace Starmer, these elections as well as those for the Senedd and the English locals will force Starmer to resign. Eventually.

At some point, the political pressure will become too great for him not too though it won’t happen over night. For Labour to be in with a chance of winning again in 2029, timing will be everything.

Ballot Box Scotland poll points to an unrepresentative election on 7 May

By Richard Wood

Yet another poll suggests that Scotland is on track for an unrepresentative election despite its use of the broadly proportional Additional Member System.

The Survation poll for Ballot Box Scotland puts the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote and 29% of the regional vote. That is significantly down on the 2021 election, but still well ahead of other parties.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these results would give the SNP 57 seats, which would amount to 44% of seats on the Scottish Parliament. That is a significant mismatch between seats and votes.

While not as stark as other polling projections that put the SNP on course for a majority of seats on far less than a majority of votes, the gap between polled votes and projected seats is far wider than it should be.

The poll puts Reform in second place (20% constituency, 19% list), Labour (20%, 17%), Conservatives (13%, 13%), Lib Dems (10%, 8%), Greens (1%, 11%). The election is less than two weeks away, and as always polls are snapshots not predictions, but an outcome along these lines is looking very likely.

Why is Scotland on track for such an unrepresentative election?

The reason for these projected mismatches of seats and votes is a combination a structural flaw of Scotland’s Additional Member System exposed by changing voting patterns.

A majority of Holyrood seats are determined by First Past the Post (73 constituency seats compared to 56 list seats). The SNP are doing consistently better than the other parties across the vast majority of these constituency seats, but not well enough in vote terms to justify the number seats they could win. The fall in support for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, aided by the rise of Reform, is giving the SNP a clear advantage in many constituencies. And the party is also helped by the lack of Scottish Greens in most constituencies.

What’s the solution?

The problem here is the dominance of First Past the Post in Scotland’s voting system. A simple fix would be to adjust the ratio of constituency seats to list seats to ensure more proportional outcomes.

This could be done by reducing constituency seats to their Westminster equivalents (while splitting Orkney and Shetland into different constituencies) and distributing the remaining seats on a proportional regional basis as done now.

Or alternatively, if politicians aren’t wedded to the idea of retaining 129 seats, then an additional two MSPs could be added to each region to make a 50/50 split.

That all said, while these would be positive steps, the Additional Member System would still have notable flaws. Adopting a well designed Single Transferable Vote system or Open List Proportional Representation are viable alternatives to consider.

Scottish Lib Dems commit to political reforms in 2026 manifesto

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are the last of Scotland’s six main parties to publish their manifesto ahead of elections on Thursday 7 May.

Their plans for Scotland were announced on Friday 17 April, one day after the SNP published their own document.

Overall, the Scottish Lib Dems have some promising policies in their manifesto on the issues of democratic and electoral reform.

Changing the Additional Member System

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are the only one of the six main parties to have explicitly committed to replacing Holyrood’s Additional Member System with a fairer alternative, in this case the Single Transferable Vote.

Scotland is on track for its least representative election ever, yet other parties have failed to grasp the seriousness of this. If designed well, STV would improve proportionality and, crucially, strengthen voter power over individual candidates up for election.

Introducing an Accountability Act

An eye-catching proposal is Alex Cole-Hamilton’s plan for an Accountability Act, which would improve ministerial accountability and introduce a recall rule for MSPs.

Protect devolution

The Scottish Lib Dems have also pledged to protect drovlution by removing the ability of the UK Parliament to unilaterally change the powers of devolved parliaments.

There are also proposals to reform Quangos, implement a federal, written constitution, and devolve power to local communities.

The full Scottish Liberal Democrat manifesto is available to download here.

What do you think of the Lib Dems manifesto? How does it compare to the other five, or any proposals put forward by minor parties?

Scottish Green democracy pledges announced in 2026 manifesto

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Greens launched their manifesto on Tuesday 14 April, just shy of three weeks before the election in May. The party are hoping for their best ever Holyrood election result and made those intentions clear at their launch in Glasgow.

My first thought looking at the manifesto was how the title stands out as being very familiar. If you’ve had the same thought it’s because it’s rather reminiscent of a previous Liberal Democrat slogan “demand better”.

The Scottish Lib Dem manifesto is due on Friday while the SNP are expected to publish theirs on Thursday.

This follows Reform, the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour who have all published their plans.

Independence and democracy

Unsurprisingly, the Greens reaffirm their commitment to independence, linking it with their wider policies on democracy in one clear section. Notably the party doesn’t even mention a referendum but calls for the devolution of foreign affairs.

Positive steps to improve Scottish democracy include a proposals for a Trust and Transparency Strategy and the introduction of a recall rule for MSPs.

The ending of cash deposits for election candidates is also welcome as that would democratise Scotland’s nominations process. Automatic voter registration is also a good inclusion, highlighting the absurdity that such a system isn’t already in place.

Local democracy

The manifesto also has a dedicated section on local democracy.

One eye-catching proposal is the move towards making councillors a full-time position. That is something which needs a lot more thinking and financing to make it feasible.

The party also wants to reform the way vacancies are filled when councillors resign from their position. There’s a lack of detail here, but the obvious alternative to disruptive and non-representative by-elections is co-option. However, any co-option proposals would need to have strong democratic safeguards.

What about voting system reform?

Disappointingly, the party lacks any commitment to replace Scotland’s failing Additional Member System.

Their 2021 manifesto also lacked such a commitment while their 2016 document committed them to the Single Transferable Vote.

The party did however outline it’s support for Proportional Representation at all levels of governance in the 2024 UK General Election.

But that all said, it’s striking that there are no proposals to reform Holyrood’s Additional Member System as we hurtle towards what’s likely to be Scotland’s most disproportional election ever.

Holyrood election 2026: how does Scotland’s voting system work?

By Richard Wood

Voters in Scotland are going to the polls on Thursday 7 May 2026 to elect 129 MSPs.

Here’s how the Scotland’s Additional Member System works.

First Past the Post seats

Scotland is divided into 73 constituencies elected via First Past the Post. In this system, you get one vote for candidates in your constituency. The candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat to become the constituency MSP.

On these seats alone, the share of votes cast for each party across Scotland are unlikely to match up with the proportion of seats won. To address this disproportionality, that’s where the other 56 seats come into play.

Regional party list seats

The country is also divided into eight regions each electing eight MSPs.

With this, you also get another ballot where you vote for a party of your choice. This party list element adds an element of proportionality to the Scottish Parliament so seats broadly match votes (although it’s worth highlighting that the system has proportionality problems that risk being on full display this May).

The allocation of party list seats is determined by list votes cast per party while also taking into account of constituency seats won by each party so seats roughly match votes over all.

If a party does wins lots of constituency seats in a region, they are unlikely to pick up many list seats. This has been the case for the SNP and Scottish Lib Dems in recent years. Similarly, if a party does well on the list ballot but not in constituencies, such as the Scottish Greens, then they will pick up list seats.

Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May

By Richard Wood

The final poll to be published this March suggests the SNP are on track to coming close to winning a majority of seats — on a vote share that doesn’t reflect their projected seat share at all.

The new Survation poll (data collected 16 – 23 March) gives the SNP 35% (constituency) and 32% (list) of the vote. Projections, including from Ballot Box Scotland, suggest this would give the SNP 62 seats. That’s three seats short of a majority and 48% of seats.

That mismatch of seats and votes is shocking, and doesn’t reflect the founding principle of proportionality underpinning the establishment of the Scottish Parliament.

The next Scottish Parliament must address this broken link between seats and votes.

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates. This poll highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.

Scotland’s First Past the Post ballot risks warping Holyrood’s election results

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Parliament’s Additional Member System is significantly more representative than Westminster’s First Past the Post electoral system. But AMS has significant flaws that need to be addressed.

Recent polls suggest that the SNP could win close to a majority of seats – or possibly a majority – on far less than a majority of votes.

This is largely down to the imbalance of constituency seats to list seats alongside one party, in this case the SNP, doing significantly better than other parties across Scottish constituencies.

Since the advent of devolution in 1999, there have been 73 constituency seats to 56 list seats. This means that one party could theoretically win a majority of seats on constituency seats only.

Such an outcome is possible in 7 May 2026, according to recent polling.

Modifying the Additional Member System

One way to address this would be to reform AMS (although it’s worth noting the system has wider flaws that would still persist).

This could involve the introduction of levelling seats if seats don’t match votes. Or else adding two MSPs to each region, creating a more 50-50 sit of constituency and list MSPs.

Alternatively, the number of constituency seats could be cut and replaced by list MSPs. This is an option if decision-makers are wedded to 129 MSPs.

STV or other alternatives

Alternatively, it is worth considering other voting systems. Introducing the Single Transferable Vote, if designed well, could improve proportionality while also empowering voters and giving them the option to vote across different parties.

A more radical alternative would be to introduce an Open List system Proportional Representation with levelling seats to maximise proportionality.

The seventh Scottish Parliament must fix the voting system

So far, Holyrood election results have been broadly proportional. But the 2026 election risks exposes a major problem with the Additional Member System, namely the First Past the Post element.

Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

By Richard Wood

Concern is growing ahead of the 2026 election that the result after 7 May will be the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament vote ever.

Proportionality was one of the founding principles of the design of Scotland’s Additional Member System. It’s not perfect, but since 1999 seats have broadly matched votes. Now, due to a combination of the imbalance of constituency to list seats (73 to 56) and one party expected to do well in constituencies despite falling well short of a majority of the constituency vote, the next Scottish Parliament is likely to fall well short of the proportional standards expected.

Are MSPs able to abolish the Additional Member System?

If election projections come true, the next parliament must seize the moment and find consensus to fix Holyrood’s creaking voting system.

The way to do this is through a Bill passed with a supermajority in Holyrood. That’s two-thirds of MSPs. Therefore any change requires broad consensus from multiple parties to meet the magic number of 86 MSPs.

Is change likely?

The possibility of electoral reform in Scotland depends on what happens after the election. The bigger the disproportionality, the more pressure there will be on MSPs and ministers to act.

The SNP, Lib Dems and Scottish Greens all support Proportional Representation. And together, they are likely to have a two-thirds majority, but finding agreement on the type of reform will be the challenge – not to mention conflicts in the SNP about maintaining the status-quo for their own advantage versus their commendable party stance on the issue.

There are certainly issues needing ironed out. But there is precedent for this in the devolution era. In Wales, Labour and Plaid Cymru came together to abolish the Additional Member System ahead of their own 2026 vote, and in Scotland, the Lib Dems convinced their coalition partners Labour to introduce STV for Scottish local government.

Holyrood is turning 30 in the next parliament. It’s time to review Scotland’s democratic foundations and reform the voting system once and for all.

Yet another poll shows Scotland on track for an unrepresentative election due to AMS

By Richard Wood

A new poll suggests that the Scottish Parliament is on track for a highly unrepresentative election despite Holyrood’s supposedly proportional voting system.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse poll for STV puts the SNP first in terms of list votes, constituency votes and projected seats.

Party	Constituency %	List vote %
SNP	36%	26%
Labour	20%	19%
Green	7%	16%
Reform UK	19%	14%
Conservatives	9%	11%
Lib Dems	10%	10%

In a properly proportional system, seats should broadly match votes cast. But seat projections for this poll indicate a staggering mismatch between seats and votes.

Party	Seat count	Seat %
SNP	60	46.5%
Labour	20	15.5%
Green	16	12.4%
Reform	13	10.1%
Conservatives	10	7.8%
Lib Dems	10	7.8%

The biggest divergence between seats and votes here is with the SNP. Support for the party has fallen dramatically to 26% of list votes and 36% of seats. But projections indicate they are on track for 60 seats – almost half of those available.

The main driver behind this mismatch is driven by the dominance of First Past the Post seats used in Scotland’s Additional Member System, an imbalanced ratio of 73 to 56. This makes it theoretically possible for a party to win a majority on constituency seats alone.

The SNP is doing better than other competitive parties on the constituency ballot, and due to their success, they are on track to win the vast majority of constituency seats and close to a majority of seats overall.

The SNP is set to win more seats than they are entitled to if Holyrood had a mechanism to address parties winning more seats than they proportionally should on the constituency vote. In fact, Ballot Box Scotland estimates that the poll puts them on a staggering 22 seats more than what they should win if seats were determined by the proportional ballot alone in different Scottish regions.

Scotland’s new Parliament is likely going to be highly disproportionate. Holyrood’s new MSPs should address this with electoral reform.

Full details of the poll from STV can be read here.

Talk of term limits for list MSPs is nonsense – reform Holyrood’s voting system instead

By Richard Wood

Every now and again someone suggests introducing term limits for list MSPs. The argument being that lost MSPs are supposedly not elected by voters unlike their constituency counterparts.

However, list systems are normal in the democratic world and it is valid for someone to be elected as part of a list. When someone votes on the party list, they aren’t just blindly voting for said party, they are backing a slate of candidates.

That said, while term limits aren’t the answer, AMS lists aren’t perfect.

The real problem with the list element at Holyrood is two-fold.

First of all lists are closed, meaning voters have no say over what order candidates are ranked in. Tinkering with AMS is one option to improve Holyrood by introducing an open list element as part of the voting process. This is is used in Bavaria’s similar MMP system to empower voters at the ballot box.

But that only takes you so far. The second problem is the two-tier nature of MSPs. Having constituency and list MSPs creates a two-tier system. While in theory the two types of MSPs have the same jobs, this isn’t always the case in practice. Furthermore, it ends up creating attitudes that list MSPs aren’t real MSPs.

Instead of tinkering with AMS, although opening up lists would be a welcome step, Holyrood’s electoral system needs a major overhaul.

AMS provides broadly proportional parliaments but there is significant room for improvement. Switching to the Single Transferable Vote would end the two-tired element, strengthen proportionality (if designed fairly), and empower voters to rank candidates. An open list system where parties are ranked preferentially, and voters can vote for individual candidates within parties is also an alternative.

The Scottish Parliament is now over a quarter of a century old. AMS has done well to ensure that what happens in the ballot box leads to representative outcomes but there are fairer alternatives. The next Scottish Government and Parliament should address the democratic deficits at Holyrood to upgrade Scottish democracy for the next 25 Years and beyond.