25 years of devolution in 2024: Holyrood needs an upgrade

By Richard Wood

Next year marks 25 years of devolution following the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. After some bumps along the way, the Scottish Parliament is undeniably a success story. However, while its use of a broadly proportional voting system makes it more representative than the parliament in Westminster (what with FPTP in the Commons and the continued existence of the House of Lords), the Scottish Parliament needs reform. Put simply, Holyrood needs an upgrade.

Upgrade Holyrood champions better democracy in Scotland. With next year marking a quarter of a century of devolution, it will be the perfect time to reflect, assess and improve upon the democratic mechanisms of the Scottish Parliament.

First things first, Scotland’s voting system sounds great at first glance but there is significant room for improvement. The Additional Member System (AMS) ensures broad proportionality but only goes so far as having a mechanism for regional proportionality. What’s more it fails to address overhangs, retains single-member districts and leaves open the possibility for parties to “game the system” as seen with Alba’s failed attempt to win a “supermajority” for independence at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Furthermore, voters still have limited powers over individual candidates.

SEE MORE: 3 alternatives to Scotland’s proportional but flawed voting system

The system is significantly more proportional than First Past the Post but alternatives do exist – and those alternatives must be examined and adopted. There are three likely routes that the Scottish Parliament could take on this issue: AMS with modifications, Open List PR or the Single Transferable Vote.

Tinkering around the edges by adopting a German style mixed-member voting system to address overhangs and ensure national party proportionality would be a minor improvement but it would cause some headaches of it’s own – Germany’s Bundestag is growing with each election. The Scottish public are likely to be approving of significantly more politicians. What’s more such a system would retain single-member constituencies.

Open List PR with levelling seats – as in Denmark, Sweden or Iceland – this would improve proportionality, give voters power over individual candidates and crucially end single-member districts. This would be one option for the Scottish Parliament that’s worth considering. If we were to go down this route then we would to ensure that any lists are regional, open for voters to enhance their power and have levelling seats to ensure both regional and national proportional representation.

The final alternative is often seen as the gold-standard voting system (if implemented properly) – the Single Transferable Vote. Already used to elect councillors in Scotland, STV would provide proportionality (depending on district sizes), give voters an enormous amount of power at elections and provide voters with multi-party representation. What’s more, the system is backed by the SNP, Lib Dems, as well as some Labour and Conservative MSPs. The Scottish Greens recently supported it before backing Open List PR.

The Scottish Parliament must therefore examine its voting system in any 25-year review of devolution.

SEE MORE: New Zealand and Scotland – proportional but imperfect voting systems

But it’s not just the electoral system where the Scottish Parliament needs improvements.

Holyrood needs to end dual mandates – primarily for joint MSP-MPs and MSP-Lords but also place restrictions on MSP-councillors. Dual mandates are unfair on voters who deserve fully-committed representatives. On top of that, there also needs to be a restriction on second jobs for MSPs, again for similar reasons.

We also need a return to four-year parliamentary terms. It’s right that election terms are fixed – as they give a level playing field to all parties and candidates – but five-year terms are too long and are only something the Scottish Parliament slipped into during the last decade as a result of Westminster’s very brief adoption of fixed five-year terms.

What’s more, the Scottish Parliament also needs a recall rule. Holyrood is ahead of Westminster on many fronts but the lack of ability for constituents to recall MSPs is a major flaw. In practice this will be difficult to achieve due to the mixed-member system and by-election blueprint for recalls at Westminster but any review of the functioning of the Scottish Parliament should include a reform of this nature.

SEE MORE: What do Scotland’s parties say about Holyrood’s voting system? The route to electoral reform

2024 will be a milestone year for Scotland – 25 years of devolution have undoubtedly changed the Scottish political landscape forever.

Devolution works and what’s more it works well. This should be celebrated. But with that success comes room for improvement. There will be time to take stock next year and assess a way to move forward on these reforms – hopefully with cross-party support. It’s time to upgrade Holyrood.

SEE MORE: Douglas Ross’ call to implement Mackay’s Law for absent MSPs is right but hypocritical

The USA is moving towards Proportional Representation – one step at a time

By Richard Wood (Founder of Upgrade Holyrood, electoral reform campaigner)

The big stories of this year’s US elections were the Republican wave failing to materialise – thanks to the Democrats holding the Senate – and a razor-thin win for Republicans in the House. But November 2022 should also be remembered as a significant time for electoral reform in the USA.

Before getting into the details here, it’s worth framing the nature of electoral reform in the US. American reform movements by and large make the case for Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). In the case of single-member districts, RCV is simply the Alternative Vote (used in the Australian House of Representatives) whereas multi-member RCV districts are simply the Single Transferable Vote (used for Scottish local councils, as well as elections in Ireland, Malta and the Australian Senate).

Fair Vote USA (a 30-year-old organisation) and new campaign Fix Our House both advocate for proportional US elections.

READ MORE: Canada’s 2021 election – the striking failures of First Past the Post exposed

The biggest win for Proportional Representation in November 2022 was the outcome of a referendum where people voted to adopt proportional multi-member Ranked Choice Voting.

Voters in Portland, Oregon backed wide-ranging proposals to reform the city’s charter including a provision to abolish First Past the Post voting and instead introduce multi-member districts with candidates ranked in order of preference. In 2024, the city of around 650,00 people will now have its first elections conducted under proportional Ranked Choice Voting. This is a massive win for better democracy campaigns and credit should be given to the Portland for Change campaign group who backed the reforms.

On top of that, on the other side of the country Portland, Oregon’s namesake Portland, Maine (with a population of 68,000) also voted for STV.

It’s also worth highlighting that other places voted to replace First Past the Post with RCV in single-member districts. The Alternative Vote is far from perfect for electing multi-member bodies but in the American context this is an exciting development. According to Fair Vote USA, the places that did this are: Nevada; Seattle, WA; Portland, OR; Multnomah County, OR; Fort Collins, CO; Evanston, IL; Portland, ME; and Ojai, CA.

The USA is unlikely to adopt Proportional Representation at a national level any time soon, but progress is being made in the right direction. That the US’ 26th largest city voted in favour of PR should not be underestimated.

READ MORE: Scotland’s STV council elections show England a better way of doing local democracy

READ MORE: Quebec’s 2022 election – First Past the Post strikes again

Image from Pixabay (source)

Time is running out for fair local government in Wales

Source: Pixabay

By Richard Wood

The previous Welsh government, an effective coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and an independent, introduced legislation that gives Welsh local councils the opportunity to switch from First Past the Post to the Single Transferable Vote. But time is running out for councils to adopt it before the next set of local elections.

The Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021, which enables councils to make changes, was a great step forward as it allows the opportunity for significant upgrades to Welsh local democracy.

Of course, it’s disappointing that there wasn’t an automatic switch for all 22 councils, like in Scotland due to the Labour-Lib Dem coalition (2003 – 2007). Instead, individual councils have to make the decision themselves. But we are where we are.

READ MORE: 3 alternatives to Scotland’s proportional but flawed voting system

There are real opportunities for change. However, the decks are stacked against reform campaigners. The Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021 sets a deadline for reform ahead of the next elections. The legislation says the following:

“A resolution to exercise the power has no effect unless it is passed before 15 November of the year that is three years before the year in which the next ordinary election of the council is due to be held.”

With the next local elections due in May 2027, the deadline for reform is 15 November 2024, three years ahead of the elections. That’s now just two years away.

That may seem like a while away, but it’ll be November 2024 before we know it. Electoral reform campaigners in Wales will be very much aware of that.

READ MORE: Scotland’s STV council elections show England a better way of doing local democracy

How popular is the monarchy in Scotland?

Source: Pixabay

By Richard Wood

Following the Queen’s passing and the King’s ascension, discussions about the future of the monarchy are taking place across the Commonwealth realms.

There are currently 15 countries where King Charles III has become head of state by virtue of his birth. It’s almost certain several of these countries will become republics in the coming years and decades. The question is when. Australia’s relatively new government has a Minister for the Republic (although any moves away from the monarchy are unlikely to take place in this current parliament) while polling in Jamaica suggests strong support for a republic.

In the UK, the Queen was undeniably a popular figure. What remains to be seen is how much support for the monarchy in the UK is dependent on support for the Queen as an individual and her role as figurehead, rather than the institution of the Crown itself. That will become apparent in the coming years.

READ MORE: What do each of Scotland’s political parties say on the monarchy and republicanism?

How popular is the monarchy in Scotland?

Polling can give an indication of the level of support for the monarchy and a possible republic.

The most recent major poll on the issue, by think-tank British Future, suggests that 58% of Brits think the UK should keep the monarchy for the foreseeable future. In contrast, 25% of those polled said they think the UK should become a republic after the Queen’s passing. Note that the poll was conducted in May 2022, four month’s before the monarch’s passing.

A further 6% said neither while 11% said they don’t know.

As for Scotland, support for a republic is stronger than across the UK overall. Less than half of Scots polled (just 45%) said they support the monarch remaining head of state. While over a third (36% support) favour becoming a republic after the Queen’s passing.

Scottish support for the monarchy is significantly weaker than across the rest of the country.

The UK is unlikely to abolish the monarchy any time soon, but there is no place for an hereditary head of state in the 21st century. The Queen was undeniably a giant and a well-respected figure on the world-stage. And while the UK becoming a republic isn’t the most important democratic upgrade we need, we should certainly strive for it.

READ MORE: New Zealand and Scotland – proportional but imperfect voting systems

Quebec’s 2022 election – First Past the Post strikes again

Source: Pixabay

By Richard Wood

Voters in Quebec went to the polls on 3 October 2022 to elect all 125 Members of the province’s National Assembly. As with Canadian federal elections, as well as votes in the other nine provinces and the three territories, the election was held under First Past the Post, resulting in another outcome where seats didn’t match votes.

State of play before the election

The previous election took place in October 2018 at which the Liberals lost over half their seats, and with it their governing majority. The party lost a staggering 16.7 percentage points. Meanwhile the nationalist, conservative Coalition Avenir Québec gained support across the province, taking a majority of seats (74 out of 125) on just 37.4% of the vote.

The independence supporting Parti Québécois lost votes and seats while the social democratic Québec solidaire gained votes and seats.

The outcome resulted in the Coalition Avenir Québec leader François Legault becoming premier of the province. Polls since then showed the Coalition consistently in the lead and on course to emerge the largest party in 2022 yet again, however, they have also shown a significant increase in support for the Conservative Party of Quebec who won just 1.5% in 2018.

READ MORE: Canada’s 2021 election – the striking failures of First Past the Post exposed

A missed opportunity for Proportional Representation

It’s worth highlighting here that the Coalition Avenir Québec went into the 2018 election promising to change the province’s voting system to one of Proportional Representation. The government even brought forward a bill to introduce a mixed-member proportional system with 80 members elected via First Past the Post ridings and 45 elected via regional lists.

This proposed system closely reflects Scotland’s current Additional Member System, which has 73 constituency MSPs and 56 regional MSPs, which would result in broadly proportional outcomes. Similar systems are also used in the likes of Wales, Germany and New Zealand.

However, the legislation to enact this change was never passed despite the Coalition Avenir Québec majority. According to CBC, after the election Quebec’s premier changed position to supporting a referendum on reform rather than just implementing a system switch. And since then that referendum proposal was scrapped, with the minister responsible blaming the pandemic for the shifting timetable.

It remains to be seen whether there will be any reforms after the 2022 election.

READ MORE: How proportional was the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

How did Quebec vote in 2022 and how representative was it?

As widely expected, the governing Coalition Avenir Québec remained the largest party at the 2022 election. The party took 40.96% of the vote , resulting in them winning 90 out of 125 seats. As usual, First Past the Post has rewarded the largest party by inflating their representation in the legislature. CAQ won 72% of seats available on just 4 in 10 votes. The over-representation of CAQ clearly shows how unrepresentative First Past the Post truly is.

On top of that, the results for the four other main parties show just how messed up FPTP can be. The rest of the vote split four ways. Here’s what happened.

The once governing Liberals came in fourth with 14.37% of the vote, however, because of the wild nature of the voting system used, they ended up the second largest party, taking 21 seats (17% of those in the National Assembly).

Québec Solidaire won more votes than the Liberals (15.2%) but only took 11 seats. Parti Québécois did the same (14.6%) but won a mere 3 seats out of 125.

What’s more, the Conservative Party of Quebec won 12.92% of the vote yet failed to win any seats, a result reminiscent of UKIP taking 13% of the vote at the 2015 election and only returning with one seat.

Overall, the results were extremely unrepresentative:

  1. The most popular party won a massive majority on just 41% of the vote.
  2. The fourth most popular party came second in terms of seats.
  3. Four parties came within 3 percentage points of each other, all with wildly different results.
  4. A party that took almost 13% of the vote came away with no seats.
  5. The election did not fully reflect how people voted.

Quebec’s 2022 general election is yet another example of the striking flaws First Past the Post. Four years ago there was a real possibility that 2022 would be the last Quebec election held under FPTP but that feels almost impossible now. This should be a warning to campaigners in the UK if Labour wins a majority with a promise to reform the electoral system. There is a real possibility that such a government would go back on its pledge, like Labour did in 1997, similar to what happened with Canada’s Justin Trudeau in 2015 and most recently in Quebec.

READ MORE: How do elections work in the Baltics? Lessons for Holyrood and Westminster

Italy’s 2022 election – FPTP element distorts final outcome

Source: Pixabay

By Richard Wood

Italy went to the polls on Sunday 25 September 2022 to elect a new Chamber of Deputies as well as a new Senate. The election saw the significant rise in support of the far-right Brothers of Italy, who look set to have their first ever prime minister (leading a right-of-centre bloc). But how proportional was the election? And how does its mixed-member system compare to elections in Scotland’s?

Italy’s electoral systems

The Italian Chamber of Deputies has used a whole series of voting systems in its post-war history (Difford 2021). From 1948 – 1994, the country used an extremely proportional list system with no electoral thresholds. This was followed by three elections using a mixed-member system (known as Mattarellum) with most seats elected via First Past the Post and a quarter by list PR.

This was followed by a system of Porcellum, somewhat similar to the current Greek system, where the largest electoral coalition was given a bonus to provide them with 54% of representation in the chamber. This too didn’t last long and was replaced by the Rosatellum system which has been in place since the 2018 election.

Under Rosatellum, 37% of deputies are elected via First Past the Post while the remaining 63% are elected via party list PR. This results in a parallel voting system (mixed-member majoritarian) where there is no link between the FPTP seats and the PR seats. This is in contrast to mixed-member systems such as those used in Scotland, Germany and New Zealand where there is an explicit link between the two electoral components to strengthen overall proportionality.

The 2022 election saw a decrease in elected deputies, with 400 being elected across the whole of Italy.

Italy has a bicameral political system. In addition to the Chamber of Deputies, the country has an elected Senate with 200 members. Proposals to weaken the power of the Senate were rejected in a 2016 referendum meaning that the Italy remains a true bicameral democracy. Like with the Chamber of Deputies, the Italian Senate has a majority of PR representatives (63%) and a minority of FPTP members (37%).

READ MORE: New Zealand and Scotland – proportional but imperfect voting systems

Italy 2022 election results

This year’s Italian election results have certainly made the headlines.

Far-right Brothers of Italy emerged as the largest party at the 2022 election, taking 26% of the vote and 119 seats (of 400) in the Senate. The coalition of parties they led (including Forza Italy, Lega and Us Moderate) won a majority of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate (237 and 115 seats respectively).

The Democratic Party, led by former PM Enrico Letta, came second, but their centre-left coalition only managed to win 85 and 44 seats in the Chamber and Senate respectively.

The results mean that the right-wing coalition has majorities in both chambers. This is likely to lead to the appointment of Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni becoming the country’s prime minister – Italy’s eleventh since the start of the 21st century – certainly a worrisome prospect for Europe.

READ MORE: Canada’s 2021 election – the striking failures of First Past the Post exposed

How proportional was the 2022 election?

First Past the post has struck once again. While the Italian electoral system has significant proportional elements in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, the election was far from proportional overall.

The right-wing bloc secured just shy of 44% of the Chamber of Deputies vote, however, they ended up with 59% of seats available (237 out of 40).

Brother’s of Italy’s vote count and seat count match up fairly closely. The party secured 26% of the vote and 29% of seats overall.

However, what skews the result in the right-wing’s bloc’s favour was the success of the right-wing populist Lega party in the First Past the Post element. The party won just 8.8% of the vote, however, they took 66 seats overall (16.5% of those available). They managed to do this by taking a whopping 42 First Past the Post seats, just seven fewer than their Brothers of Italy allies.

The overrepresentation of Lega in First Past the Post seats is the driving factor behind the overrepresentation of the right-wing bloc.

On the left, the Democrats were slightly underrepresented, taking 69 of 400 seats (17.25%) on 19.07% of the vote.

A similar story on both sides plays out in the Senate.

Overall, while the proportional element of Italy’s voting system enables a more multiparty system, the fact that almost 4 in 10 seats are determined by First Past the Post, skews the overall results, leading to overrepresentation of some parties and underrepresentation of others.

READ MORE: Sweden’s proportional voting system – an alternative for Scotland?

How does Italy’s voting system compare to Scotland’s?

As already mentioned, while the Italian system is a mixed-member system, there is no link between FPTP seats and list PR seats. In contrast, the Scottish system is designed to ensure an element of proportionality; list seats are allocated taking into account of FPTP won by each party in a region. At the last election, the SNP dominated the FPTP seats leading to Labour and the Conservatives winning more list seats to strengthen overall proportionality.

As there is no such mechanism in Italy, parties can be overrepresented leading to skewed results overall. This is a key factor in the dominance of the right-wing bloc in both chambers, driven by the relative overrepresentation of Lega in FPTP seats.

It’s also worth highlighting that while Scottish voters get two votes (one for the constituency and one for their regional list), Italian voters get just one vote, which counts as their constituency and list vote.

The case is clear: despite a proportional element, First Past the Post has distorted the link between seats and votes in the 2022 Italian election.

READ MORE: Labour conference votes in favour of Proportional Representation

Labour conference votes in favour of Proportional Representation

By Richard Wood

Delegates at the UK Labour Party Conference in Liverpool have today voted in favour of a motion to put changing the UK’s electoral system to one of Proportional Representation (PR) in the next election manifesto.

The vote follows years of hard work from reform activists, notably the Labour for a New Democracy campaign which includes the likes of Make Votes Matter and the Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform.

The successful vote also comes a year after a similar motion was defeated at the previous conference.

It’s worth highlighting that 60% of local Labour parties support PR. A total of 140 sent motions to this year’s conference in favour of reform.

Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar even made the case for PR at the Labour conference. The Scottish Parliament voting system may not be perfect but it does deliver broadly proportional outcomes so it’s great to see MSPs standing up for PR at Westminster too.

READ MORE: 12 reasons to support Proportional Representation

Analysis – what does this mean and what next for Labour?

This is a major step forwards on the road to Proportional Representation. The Labour Party now officially has a policy in favour of upgrading UK democracy with fair votes.

However, it does not guarantee the inclusion of PR at the next election. Reports suggest that the party leadership may opt to exclude a commitment to PR from its 2024 manifesto.

It remains to be seen how this will play out but one thing is certain, this is a significant moment.

Labour for a New Democracy will no doubt keep up the pressure within the Labour Party.

READ MORE: 3 alternatives to the Scottish Parliament’s AMS voting system

Sweden’s proportional voting system – an alternative for Scotland?

Source: Pixabay

By Richard Wood

Sweden went to the polls on Sunday 11 September 2022, four years after the previous vote in 2018. The country uses a system of Proportional Representation to elect members of the Riksdag, ensuring that how Swedes vote at the ballot box is reflected in parliament.

The country’s electoral system is worth exploring as an alternative to Holyrood’s broadly proportional but flawed Additional Member System.

What electoral system does Sweden use?

Sweden uses a system of Open List Proportional Representation with levelling seats to ensure national proportionality.

The country is divided into 29 constituencies – ranging from 2 to 43 members (Gotland and Stockholm county respectively) – to which parties present lists of candidates in each constituency. Voters get to vote for one party but also have the option to vote for individual candidates, which can alter the list ordering within their constituency. This is the open element of the system, thus further empowering voters at the ballot box.

Elections in Sweden are extremely proportional due to larger multi-member constituencies, however, what sets the country’s system apart from country’s such as Estonia and Latvia which use list PR systems, is that Sweden’s electoral system also employs levelling seats. Once all the votes are counted and seats distributed as per the voters’ wishes, parties win additional seats across the country to ensure that the overall results are as proportional as possible. Of the 349 seats in the Riksdag, 310 are distributed in the first instance while a further 39 are distributed to further improve proportionality. There is also a 4% national threshold for parties to enter the Riksdag. Sweden is not unique in this regard; Norway, Denmark and Iceland also have levelling seats to ensure proportionality overall.

READ MORE: How do elections work in the Baltics? Lessons for Holyrood and Westminster

How did Sweden vote at the 2022 election and how proportional was it?

The previous Swedish general election took place in 2018, which was followed by tough negotiations and even a no confidence vote in Prime Minister Stefan Löfven. However, Löfven emerged to lead a minority left coalition made up of his own party the Social Democrats, as well as the Greens. Löfven resigned in 2021, making way for party colleague Magdalena Andersson, who led her party into the 2022 election.

The most recent election was an incredibly close-run contest between the left and right blocs. On the left, the Social Democrats maintained their dominant position as the largest party in parliament. however, right of centre parties managed to win a very slim majority of seats, leading to Magdalena Andersson’s resignation on Thursday. The far-right Sweden Democrats replaced the centre-right Moderates as the second largest party in parliament but the Moderate leader is likely to become prime minister due to the toxicity of the Sweden Democrats even amongst the rest of the right. What influence they will have this parliament – and in the years to come – remains to be seen.

But how proportional was the 2022 election? Thanks to Sweden’s Open List PR system, the answer is very.

The Social Democrats for example won 107 seats (30.7%) on 30.4% of the vote. The Sweden Democrats took 73 seats (20.9%) on 20.5% of the vote while the Moderates won 68 seats (19.5%) on 19.5% of the vote. Overall, results were extremely proportional with seats reflecting votes. Furthermore, voters were empowered by the open element of the allowing them to express support for individuals within their chosen party.

READ MORE: How proportional was Norway’s election? Lessons for Westminster

How do the Swedish and Scottish electoral systems compare?

The Scottish Parliament’s broadly proportional Additional Member System (AMS) is significantly fairer than the unrepresentative First Past the Post voting system used for the House of Commons. However, it has a number of flaws that need to be addressed. Problems associated with Holyrood’s mixed-member system are listed below:

1. Regional not national PR – As list members are distributed on a regional basis only, there is no mechanism to ensure overall nationality proportionality. While regional proportionality tends to result in broadly proportional outcomes overall, there is still room for improvement.

2. Limited voter power – Under AMS voters have no power over the ordering of party lists. Furthermore, the constituency vote element limits voter power by creating safe seats and targeted marginal seats while also being “lists of one”.

3. Two types of MSPs – Due to the nature of mixed-member systems, the Scottish Parliament has two types of MSP. While in theory they perform the same functions, this can vary in practice, particularly on the casework side of things.

4. The two-vote problem – Voters have two votes, and while they should ideally work in tandem to result in proportional outcomes, it creates the opportunities for parties to exploit this by only standing in the list and asking established parties’ supporters to back them on the list. This was highlighted when Alba was established with the express intention to do this in 2021. This clearly goes against the spirit of AMS and could create highly disproportionate elections.

5. Constituency seats remain (and dominate!) – Single-member constituencies still come with many of the flaws they have in FPTP. They result in wasted votes and can lead to safe seats, as well as marginal seats which can result in parties focusing on them rather than giving attention to the wider region or country. Furthermore, the fact that constituency seats make up a significant majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament, this can result in overhangs (which aren’t addressed by AMS) and skew overall proportionality – particularly if one party dominates single-member seats.

READ MORE: Salmond’s Alba venture exposes Scotland’s voting system flaws via Politics.co.uk

Upgrade Holyrood is committed to making the case for improving Scotland’s democracy, and that includes arguing for a review of the current system and outlining alternatives. The type of system used for Swedish elections – an Open List PR system with levelling seats – is one option that would address many of the faults of AMS.

Levelling seats would rectify the problem of limited national proportionality. And while there would technically be two types of MSP, under a Swedish model, these are given back to constituencies, minimising that problem to a minimum. Furthermore, voters would only have one party vote, ending the two vote problem, and single-seat constituencies would come to an end. Voters would also be empowered by being able to influence party lists unlike under AMS where parties present unalterable lists.

But what would such a system look like in practice?

Ballot Box Scotland is a strong advocate of Holyrood adopting an Open List PR system (with levelling seats), which they categorise as Scandinavian-style PR. For those wondering what Holyrood would look like if it adopted a system like Sweden, BBS has designed such a model for Scotland and used the most recent Scottish Parliament election results to give an indication of what seat distribution would look like.

This is shown below. Of course, it’s worth noting that the size of any constituencies in such a system if it were to be adopted would be up to the designers so it wouldn’t necessarily reflect the below. Furthermore, in terms of seat projections, the below uses the regional vote to determine how people would cast their singular Open List PR vote. In reality, many who voted ‘SNP constituency and Green regional’ might instead have use their one vote for the SNP although this is all speculation of course. In addition, the type of voting system used very much determines how people vote and so how people may have voted under this system could be completely different (e.g. smaller parties may be more considered).

So, what support is there for a Swedish-style system among Scottish parties? The Scottish Greens support a Scandinavian-style system while the Lib Dems favour the Single Transferable Vote (which again would be better than AMS if designed effectively), as do the SNP while Labour and the Conservatives are largely missing from this debate (although figures such as Labour’s Paul Sweeney MSP recognise the faults of the current system).

READ MORE: Scottish Labour MSP “sympathetic” to Scottish electoral reform

That all said, a Sweden-like system is not the only alternative to the current set-up at Holyrood. Two other alternatives would be the Single Transferable Vote (which would address many of AMS’ problems, ensure proportionality and vastly improve voter choice and power) and a modified mixed-member system with open lists and guaranteed overall proportionality (similar to Bavaria’s electoral system).

Sweden’s election provides just one model that Holyrood – and perhaps Westminster (although that seems far less likely and possibly undesirable for such a large populous) – could adopt to improve electoral outcomes. Reform is needed, and to achieve change it is vital that we look to other parliaments for guidance.

READ MORE: 3 alternatives to Scotland’s proportional but flawed voting system

How do elections work in the Baltics? Lessons for Holyrood and Westminster

By Richard Wood

The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all gained their independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The famous Baltic Chain of Freedom of 1989 was vital in ending Soviet control of the region, paving the way for three independent republics.

There are striking similarities between the three Baltic democracies and some crucial differences too. All are republics, all use list systems to elect some or all of their MPs who have four-year terms, and all have written, codified constitutions.

Having recently visited Latvia and Lithuania (previously visiting Estonia in 2019), I’ve taken the time to highlight the electoral systems of each of the Baltic state and comparing them to Holyrood and Westminster.

Latvian flag (via Pixabay)

Estonia

Estonia has a population of 1.3 million and is most northern of the three Baltic states, bordering Latvia to the south, as well as Russia to the east.

Since gaining independence in 1990, the Estonian Parliament – the Riigikogu – has had eight elections. Members are elected via a Closed List Proportional Representation system with multiple constituencies and no levelling seats, a model similar to what was used to elect UK Members of the European system. It also resembles the expected new system for the Welsh Parliament, as proposed by Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru.

A total of 101 members are elected to the Riigikogu across 12 electoral districts ranging from five to fifteen members. This gives the country highly proportional elections while also retaining a reasonable degree of local representation. The three largest districts by representation cover Tallinn (the country’s capital and home of the national parliament) and the surrounding area.

It’s worth highlighting here that unlike at Holyrood and Westminster, when an MP joins the Estonian government they leave they stop being an MP. This gives a more formal separation of the legislature and executive than what we’re used to in the UK. The idea is an intriguing one although it only works due to the country’s list system: when an MP joins the government, the next person on their party’s list replaces them as an MP. This of course has the consequence that when a minister returns to the legislature, their substitute MP vacates their seat.

The country last voted in 2019, following which a coalition was formed led by the centre-right Centre Party. However, the government collapsed less than two years later; liberal Reform Party, led by Kaja Kallas, subsequently formed a cabinet with the Centre Party as the junior coalition partner. That arrangement didn’t last long either, but Kallas remained prime minister, after forming a coalition with the conservative Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party. The next election is expected to take place in March 2023.

As an independent, democratic republic, the country also has a non-executive president as Head of state. Unlike some other European countries with a similar set-up, Estonia’s president is elected by members of its national parliament rather than by a nation-wide vote. Its Baltic neighbours have also have non-executive presidents, but more on that below.

READ MORE: New Zealand and Scotland – proportional but imperfect voting systems

Estonian Riigikogu

Latvia

Latvia has a population just shy of 2 million, and like its less populous northern neighbour, the country uses a closed list proportional system to elect its members. The Saeima, the country’s parliament, has 100 members, one short of Estonia’s Rijikogu, and is based in the capital city of Riga.

Proportionality is a key principle in Latvian democracy. So much so that Articles 6 and 7 of the country’s constitution enshrine it in law:

6. The Saeima shall be elected in general, equal and direct elections, and by secret ballot based on proportional representation.

7. In the division of Latvia into separate electoral districts, provision for the number of members of the Saeima to be elected from each district shall be proportional to the number of electors in each district.

Latvian Constitution (Article 6)

While Latvia uses a Closed List PR system like Estonia, the system is rather different in design. The Saeima’s 100 members are spread across just five electoral districts. The capital Riga elects 36 members – that’s over a third of representatives. The other four districts elect 26, 13, 13, 12 members respectively.

This voting system leads to highly proportional elections, however, local representation is less than in Estonia, especially in the super-constituency of Riga.

The next Latvian election is scheduled to take place on 1 October 2022. The previous election saw three previously unrepresented parties gain representation in the Saeima. The pre-election governing coalition led by the centre-right, agrarian Union of Greens and Farmers since 2016 lost significant support, leading to a new government. After months of negotiations, a five-party coalition was formed with the centre-right New Unity’s Krišjānis Kariņš becoming prime minister in early 2019. New Unity is the smallest party in parliament, making Kariņš very much a compromise prime minister for the diverse coalition he heads.

Two final things. Like in Estonia, Latvian MPs formally exit the legislature when they join the government, making way for substitute MPs. And finally, Latvia’s non-executive president is elected by members of its national parliament just like in Estonia.

READ MORE: How proportional was Portugal’s election? Lessons for the UK’s broken democracy

Latvian Saeima

Lithuania

In line with it having the largest population of the three Baltic states (2.8 million people), Lithuania’s parliament (called the Seimas – not to be confused with Latvia’s Saeima) has the largest number of members of the three Baltic states. The country votes for 141 deputies every four years. However, unlike its northern neighbours, Lithuania doesn’t use what can be characterised as a proportional system.

The Seimas’ has 141 members (although the chamber has 142 for the sake of symmetrical design!) are elected in two ways. Just over half of MPs, 71, are elected from single-member districts. Candidates are only elected if they win a majority of votes in their constituency; if no candidate does then a run-off is held two weeks later to determine the elected representative.

The remaining 70 members are elected via proportional lists with a 5% threshold. There is also a degree of openness to the list element where voters can express a preference for a candidate of their choosing.

Unlike similar systems used in the likes of Scotland, Germany and New Zealand there is no link between single-member seats and the proportional element. This results in a Mixed-Member Majoritarian system where overall results are only somewhat proportional. This is also known as parallel voting.

This limited proportionality is best shown via the Gallagher Index, which provides a standardised measure of proportionality to compare different systems at different elections. The closer to 1 an election is, the more proportional it is. The 2019 Estonian and 2018 Latvian elections yielded Gallagher scores of 5.28 and 5.51 respectively. Lithuania’s score was 9.49 overall. Lithuanian elections therefore have proportional elements but are far from fully proportional.

The 2020 election led to the formation of a government headed by popular independent MP Ingrida Šimonytė. This is an interesting situation, which follows the 2019 non-executive presidential election (which unlike Estonia and Latvia was a nationwide election) which Šimonytė lost. However, she remained a popular figure, winning the most preference votes in the 2020 parliamentary election, and has a strong relationship with the centre-right Homeland Union. She now leads a centre-right cabinet consisting of independents, the Homeland Union, Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party.

READ MORE: Malta’s proportional election – a strong alternative to First Past the Post

Lithuanian Seimas

Lessons for Holyrood and Westminster

When it comes to comparing the electoral systems of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania with Westminster, the Baltic states come out on top. Even the semi-proportional Lithuanian system is significantly more representative than First Past the Post.

Of the three Baltic states, Estonia has the best balance of proportionality and local representation whereas Latvia’s mega-constituencies reduce local links and Lithuania’s mixed-member majoritarian system limits proportionality. Of course, all three are significantly more representative than First Past the Post, which distorts the link between seats and votes, leads to countless wasted votes and encourages tactical voting.

Were Westminster to adopt any of the three systems from the Baltics, representation would improve significantly.

The situation is somewhat different when making comparisons with the Scottish Parliament, which has used the proportional Additional Member System (AMS) since the advent of devolution in 1999. Unlike the mixed-member majoritarian system of Lithuania, Holyrood’s AMS is mixed-member proportional (MMP) as the constituency election results directly impact the distribution of list seats to compensate for lack of proportionality. The system has some significant flaws – which I’ve written about extensively here – but overall it delivers broadly proportional outcomes. Take a look at the most recent Scottish and Lithuanian elections. The Gallagher score for Scotland was 7.03, making it more proportional than Lithuania’s 9.49.

However, when comparing Scotland’s Gallagher scores to Estonia and Latvia, it is clear that the northern Baltic states have more proportional elections. This highlights the flaw that Holyrood elections are only broadly proportional (due to the balance of MSP types and the fact that votes are only regionally representative).

That said Scotland’s AMS means better local representation that Estonian and Latvia (with all constituents eight MSPs – one constituency MSP and seven regional MSPs). I should say here that I am of course in no position to call for reform in other countries, but the purpose of this to to show comparisons between Holyrood and Westminster with electoral systems around the world.

First Past the Post is significantly flawed. The UK needs to adopt a proportional alternative. Scotland’s AMS is a significant improvement but is in need of reform. When looking to make democratic improvements it is vital to look outward and see what other countries offer. That is a key part of the Upgrade Holyrood mission.

READ MORE: 3 alternatives to Scotland’s proportional but flawed voting system

There’s a better way to elect France’s president. Here’s the answer

By Richard Wood

France is going to the polls no fewer than four times in 2022, first for the French presidential election (the first round held on 10 April and the second on 24 April) and two months later for the parliamentary election (again split into two rounds on 12 and 19 June).

In 2017 Emmanuel Macron, a former Socialist Party minister, built his own centrist movement and won the first round before going on to beat far-right Marine Le Penn to become president. Then two months later, his party won a majority of seats in the French parliament.

It’s been a turbulent five years in French politics – not to mention politics across the rest of Europe – but Macron is likely to make it into the final round in 2022. Whether Macron secures a second term likely depends on who he his up against although it’s looking more and more likely that 2022 will be q repeat of 2017. Here’s how French presidential elections work.

France’s two-round presidential system

As already said, the French presidential election is split into two rounds. In the first round the French public vote for their preferred candidate. In the extremely unlikely event that any candidate recieves over 50% of the vote then they become president without the need for a second round. If no candidate recieves this then all but the top two candidates are eliminated and two weeks later they go head to head. In 2017, Macron secured 24% of the vote, just ahead of Le Pen’s 21.3%.

The system is designed to ensure broader mandates for presidents than under a simple First Past the Post system. Ultimately, in 2017 Macron won 66.1% of the vote ahead of Le Pen’s 33.9%, handing him the presidency.

While this is fairer than First Past the Post, the two-round system is not without its flaws.

Tactical voting is still present as there is an incentive for voters to support candidates likely to make it into the second round. Furthermore, while mandates are broader than under FPTP, many voters will have held their nose to vote for Macron to keep Le Pen out.

There is also the risk that two popular extremists can get into the final round if mainstream parties are split. Say if four very similar candidates each get 15% of the vote, two very very different candidates could get 20% each and get into the final round. The optimum preference of all voters could be somewhere in the centre but voters of the middle four would have no one to back in the final round.

Again, this system is better than FPTP (for single member positions) but there remain significant flaws.

READ MORE: How proportional was Norway’s election? Lessons for the UK

There is an alternative – lessons from Ireland

So what’s the best model for single-member positions?

There is a simple answer to this and that is the Alternative Vote, or ranked choice voting (instant run-off) where voters get one ballot and rank candidates in order of preference. This gets rid of the need for two rounds, largely eliminates wasted votes and ensures that the most popular candidate overall takes the position available.

This is used to elect the non-executive president in Ireland and could be used in France to elect its executive president.

READ MORE: Canada’s 2021 election – the striking flaws of FPTP exposed

Mayors and presidents – what can the UK and Scotland take from this?

Unfortunately the UK Government are taking away the closest thing we have to the two-round system and AV by legislating to impose First Past the Post for mayoral and PPC elections in its Elections Bill. This a terrible move for UK democracy.

Instead of introducing this regressive reform, the UK should look at France and learn from Ireland for electing single-member positions. If we are to have elected positions such as mayors and PPCs, or even one day a non-executive president like in Ireland, then we should use the Alternative Vote. The same goes if Scotland ever introduced elected mayors or other single-member elected positions.

UK democracy is broken. We must learn from around the world to address our democratic deficit. France shows just one better, but imperfect, alternative.





READ MORE: Should Scotland introduce elected mayors?

Image from Pixabay