Holyrood needs electoral reform: 2026 was Scotland’s least representative election

This week’s Scottish election must be a wake up call to the serious flaws underpinning the Scottish Parliament. The Additional Member System is a massive improvement on First Past the Post, and was proposed by the Scottish Constitutional Convention to deliver proportionality, but this week the voting system produced a parliament with a major mismatch between seats and votes.

Seats did not match votes in 2026

The SNP will return to government on a reduced count of 58 seats – that’s 45% of seats available on 27.2% of the list vote (which is meant to determine the overall representation of the parliament) and 38.2% of the constituency vote. That big mismatch between votes cast and seats won is not being given the attention it deserves.

In fact, if seats matched list votes (which again are meant to shape parties’ overall representation in parliament and correct constituency overrepresentation) the SNP would have won 40 seats, according to analysis by Ballot Box Scotland.

And if we look at how the Additional Member System is supposed to work, whereby regional seats act as a counterweight to overrepresentation on the constituency ballots, the SNP are seriously overrepresented in 2026.

Overhangs occur when a party wins more seats than it should be entitled to if seats were allocated purely on the list vote in each region. On this metric, 2026 is Scotland’s least representative election: the party now 18 overhangs, and the election has the highest ever Gallagher Index (13.7), a good measure of proportionality, with the high being more unrepresentative. In contrast, in 1999 and 2003 there were seven overhangs each won primarily by the then dominant Scottish Labour and previous elections have had Gallagher scores far lower.

Were results proportional within each region as intended, the result would be:SNP: 40 (-18)Reform: 23 (+6)Labour: 21 (+4)Green: 20 (+5)Conservative: 14 (+2)Lib Dem: 11 (+1)If that'd happened it have been first time with any more than two parties on at least 20 MSPs! Big, big difference.
— Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-05-10T11:52:09.820Z

We avoided the nightmare for democracy scenario

Thankfully the SNP did not win an unrepresentative majority on similar votes shares to what ended up being the case, a result that would have been worthy of First Past the Post, but we’re still left with Scotland’s most disproportional election yet.

Whatever your political persuasion, whatever party you support, and whatever your constitutional views, this is wrong. And the same would be said for any party in a similar situation. Here, the SNP benefitted at the expense of Reform, the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Scottish Labour used to benefit in the early days of the parliament although not to this extent. In the future, any other party, such as Reform, could unfairly benefit from this.

The Additional Member System needs reform

I’ve long been banging the drum on the systemic design weakness of Holyrood’s elections, which threatened itself with the potential distortion from Alba’s planned Scottish independence majority in 2021. Thankfully, that didn’t materialise. But the drum still needs to be banged. The warning signs have been around for a long time. And yet here we are.

Scotland’s new MSPs should recognise that the way they were elected, while all fair and proper in the process-sense, goes squarely against the principles defining this voting system.

Why the Additional Member System isn’t working

The main problem shaping this major mismatch in seats and votes is the imbalanced ratio of constituency seats to list seats (73 (57%) to 56 (43%)), bringing with it all the disadvantages of FPTP. The list seats, fixed at 56, only go so far to limit disproportionality.

In 2026, this was exposed by the SNP’s dominance in winning constituency seats, bolstered by them being the only party standing in most constituencies on one side of a political divide that defines Scottish politics (independence). The SNP aren’t that far ahead of other parties but their success in constituency seats is significantly beyond a fragmented unionist opposition and is advantaged by the limited Scottish Green presence and a four-way split among unionist parties.

Options for reform

At a minimum, this should be addressed perhaps by adding additional seats in each region to even out the ratio (an additional two seats per region would take the total seat-count to 145 MSPs, arguably more reflective of a parliament with additional powers). This would go some way to fixing the problem, but wouldn’t be perfect (the SNP won four overhang seats in the North East of Scotland). Or else by introducing levelling seats to address overhangs (where parties win more constituencies than they would be entitled to on a purely proportional system) like in New Zealand.

But problems extend beyond this flaw, the other big problem being that lists are closed, limiting voter power over individual candidates.

The answer to this unrepresentative outcome is a serious review of Holyrood’s electoral foundations and its eventual reform, leading to a modified Additional Member System or the adoption of a system such as the Single Transferable Vote (if designed well) or even Open-List Proportional Representation with levelling seats. STV is already used successfully in Scottish local government while Open List PR would be an upgrade on Wales’ new system, which has abolished its First Past the Post element.

This election should be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The route to change is a two-thirds majority, a hefty mountain to climb but not insurmountable. The 2031 election must be held under a fairer system.

Making the case for electoral reform at Holyrood elsewhere

I’ve been writing extensively about the flaws of the Additional Member System in Scotland in a series of outlets since the election.

Lib Dem Voice (13 May 2026)
Comment Central (26 May 2026)
Unlock Democracy (2 June 2026)

Pre-election:

Comment Central (23 April 2026)

My comments have been picked up in the media here:

The Herald (May 2026)
Scottish Daily Express (May 2026)

7 predictions for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections

By Richard Wood

Predictions are frankly a fool’s game and are almost never right. But they are fun to make. These are my largely cautious predictions for the vote on Thursday 7 May 2026.

1. An unrepresentative election

This election will be the most disproportional election in the devolution era. The Gallagher index will be over 10.

Serious discussions will need to be had about the ability of the Additional Member System to deliver representative parliaments.

2. No SNP majority

The SNP will not win a majority. They will remain the largest party and form a minority government. Their vote shares will fall and they will win more seats than they would be entitled to proportionally.

There’s a chance they come very close but with the Scottish Greens in with a chance of winning at least one constituency seat, the Lib Dems targeting multiple seats they could well win, and the unpredictability of Reform UK, I just don’t see the SNP quite getting to 65.

John Swinney’s party will get at least 55 seats and have a good chance of getting at least 60. Having won 64 last time, 65 in 2026 still looks highly unlikely, despite some polls pointing to that possibility.

3. Scottish Lib Dems back from the dead

The Scottish Liberal Democrats will win at least 7 seats including Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and at least one regional seat, up from 4 in 2021.

Remarkably, this will be the first time the party has made net gains in any Scottish Parliament election.

4. Scottish Greens will make history

The Scottish Greens will win their first constituency seat. And if they don’t, they’ll come remarkably close.

5. Reform rise…then fall

Reform will be the second largest party at Holyrood, edging out Scottish Labour though I still think there’s a half decent chance of Labour coming second (albeit on fewer seats than in 2021). Reform will pick up at least one constituency seat.

And at least two of their MSPs will become independents by the end of 2026.

6. The end of the Scottish Conservatives as we know them?

The Scottish Conservatives will implode and have serious discussions about separating from the UK party. Murdo Fraser may be booted out of Holyrood, but his long-held ambition to Brexit his party from Kemi Badenoch’s could become a reality.

7. The end of Keir Starmer…?

Despite no obvious candidate to replace Starmer, these elections as well as those for the Senedd and the English locals will force Starmer to resign. Eventually.

At some point, the political pressure will become too great for him not too though it won’t happen over night. For Labour to be in with a chance of winning again in 2029, timing will be everything.

Ballot Box Scotland poll points to an unrepresentative election on 7 May

By Richard Wood

Yet another poll suggests that Scotland is on track for an unrepresentative election despite its use of the broadly proportional Additional Member System.

The Survation poll for Ballot Box Scotland puts the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote and 29% of the regional vote. That is significantly down on the 2021 election, but still well ahead of other parties.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these results would give the SNP 57 seats, which would amount to 44% of seats on the Scottish Parliament. That is a significant mismatch between seats and votes.

While not as stark as other polling projections that put the SNP on course for a majority of seats on far less than a majority of votes, the gap between polled votes and projected seats is far wider than it should be.

The poll puts Reform in second place (20% constituency, 19% list), Labour (20%, 17%), Conservatives (13%, 13%), Lib Dems (10%, 8%), Greens (1%, 11%). The election is less than two weeks away, and as always polls are snapshots not predictions, but an outcome along these lines is looking very likely.

Why is Scotland on track for such an unrepresentative election?

The reason for these projected mismatches of seats and votes is a combination a structural flaw of Scotland’s Additional Member System exposed by changing voting patterns.

A majority of Holyrood seats are determined by First Past the Post (73 constituency seats compared to 56 list seats). The SNP are doing consistently better than the other parties across the vast majority of these constituency seats, but not well enough in vote terms to justify the number seats they could win. The fall in support for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, aided by the rise of Reform, is giving the SNP a clear advantage in many constituencies. And the party is also helped by the lack of Scottish Greens in most constituencies.

What’s the solution?

The problem here is the dominance of First Past the Post in Scotland’s voting system. A simple fix would be to adjust the ratio of constituency seats to list seats to ensure more proportional outcomes.

This could be done by reducing constituency seats to their Westminster equivalents (while splitting Orkney and Shetland into different constituencies) and distributing the remaining seats on a proportional regional basis as done now.

Or alternatively, if politicians aren’t wedded to the idea of retaining 129 seats, then an additional two MSPs could be added to each region to make a 50/50 split.

That all said, while these would be positive steps, the Additional Member System would still have notable flaws. Adopting a well designed Single Transferable Vote system or Open List Proportional Representation are viable alternatives to consider.

SNP manifesto is limited on democratic reform ahead of 2026 election

By Richard Wood

The SNP launched their manifesto on Thursday 16 April 2026, three weeks ahead of the Scottish Parliament election and in line with the first postal vote ballots being sent out to households.

Overall, highlights include John Swinney’s commitment to winning a majority of seats to secure a second independence referendum, a £2 bus fare cap, a “welcome to school bag”, and maximum prices for essential food items.

But on issues relating to electoral and democratic reform, the manifesto was surprisingly and disappointingly bare.

In fact, democracy was mentioned just twice throughout the whole document.

Other parties have so far made pledges on introducing a recall rule for rule-breaking MSPs, automatic voter registration, reforming the way councillor vacancies are filled, and empowering the Scottish Parliament’s committees. Yet the SNP’s focus on anything to do with elections and democracy is their pledge for a referendum in 2028.

That said there are a couple of pledges that are related.

Reforming Scotland’s commissioners

The party commits to listening to the Scottish Parliament’s Finance and Public Administration Committee’s recent report by amalgamating a number of commitissioners and implementing non-executive oversight for all commissioners.

Inquiry reform

The SNP also proposes to reform the Inquiries Act to create various levels of inquiries.

What about voting system reform?

Current polling suggests the SNP could win a majority of seats despite a notable fall in support. While the SNP support Proportional Representation in principle, with a majority being the SNP’s route to negotiating for a second referendum, it’s no surprise that John Swinney’s plans do not include a pledge to reform or replace the Additional Member System. That’s an extremely disappointing outcome, considering that AMS is creaking at the seams.

The full SNP manifesto can be read here. All have Scotland’s six main parties have published manifestos, bar the Scottish Liberal Democrats who are set to launch theirs on Friday 17 April 2026.

Manifesto 2026: How would Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar reform democracy?

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar published his party’s manifesto for the 2026 election on Monday 13 April 2026. Here’s what the party has pledged to do if it defies the odds and is returned to power after nineteen years in opposition at Holyrood.

Scottish Labour want regional mayors for regions that want them

The manifesto commits the party to consulting on regional mayors, learning from blueprints in England. This isn’t a surprise and has been floated by Anas Sarwar previously. Crucially, the party only supports mayors if there is local support.

Regional mayors sound like an answer to re-energise local democracy in Scotland by having one single figure of accountability who can champion local interests. But regional mayors risk putting a lot of power into one person’s hands while also limiting multi-party politics at a time where people have a wide range of views on issues. Any proposals for such mayors should be carefully considered, as representative as possible and actively supported by local people. They’re not necessarily right for Scotland, but if they do ever go ahead they must be robust as possible with strong safeguards to ensure multi-party representation and real voter power over them.

Anas Sarwar hopes to decentrentralise power away from Holyrood

The other plank of Scottish Labour’s limited democracy plans for Scotland is to “push decision making power out of Holyrood so local people have more of a say over public services” as part of a Local Democracy Act.

They pledge to: “Push power out of Holyrood and grant Scottish regions the opportunity to take control of local skills and employability schemes, transport, and housingso they can tailor interventions to ocal needs andencourage cooperation between local authorities toreduce duplication and deliver economic outcomes.”

There’s also an interesting idea to force statutory consultations when local councils plan to cut local services such as libraries.

Ambitious plans to enhance accountability at Holyrood: second job rules and empowering committees

After a worrying manifesto from Reform on the democracy front and lacklustre democracy reform proposals from the Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour have some welcome ideas to improve accountability in the Scottish Parliament.

This includes welcome regulation over on second jobs for MSPs and lobbying.

There’s also a proposal to introduce a right to recall MSPs who don’t live up to public standards, which is welcome to see after proposals faltered in the last parliament.

Scottish Labour also want to strengthen committees by giving them teeth to compel witnesses and by electing committee convenors, which is due to happen regardless.

The proposal to provide parliamentary privilege to MSPs is also welcome to strengthen the legitimacy of MSPs on a par with MPs who already have that right.

And lastly, there’s another welcome pledge to split the role of the Lord Advocate to separate the responsibilities of Scotland’s chief prosecutor and the Scottish Government’s legal advisor, a proposal that’s long over due.

What about voting system reform?

The manifesto makes no mention of improving Scotland’s Additional Member System which could well deliver Scotland’s least representative election since 1999.

Disappointingly, there’s also no commitment to revert to four-year fixed terms so voters have a more regular say on who represents them.

Have the SNP, the Scottish Lib Dems and other parties published their manifestos?

Reform UK launched their Scottish manifesto first, publishing their document at the end of March.

While the Russell Findlay’s Scottish Conservatives published theirs on Tuesday 7 April, a month before the vote.

The SNP, Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats are yet to publish their own policies ahead of the vote.

The full Scottish Labour manifesto can be read here.

Images taken from Scottish Labour election manifesto 2026.

Latest poll shows how First Past the Post is failing Scotland’s Additional Member System

By Richard Wood

The new Ipsos poll for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) adds to existing evidence that Scotland is on track for the most unrepresentative election in Holyrood’s short history. The SNP are on track to win far more seats than they would be entitled to under a truly proportional system.

STV and Ballot Box Scotland projections for the poll (data collected 26 – 31 March) puts the SNP on 63 seats with just 39% of the list vote and 29% of the regional vote.

That’s a big disparity between seats and votes yet again even if not as stark as other polls such a Find Out Now’s recent MRP poll.

In fact, the scale of this is shown by comparing these projected results with the results if all seats were allocated via the list element alone, which is meant to determine the proportional make-up of the Scottish Parliament. Using this measure, the SNP are actually 20 seats ahead of where they should be. The Greens, Labour and Conservatives are underrepresented by 4 seats, Reform by 5 and the Lib Dems by 3.

First Past the Post is wrecking the Additional Member System

The reason for these projected mismatches between seat and vote shares is the dominance of First Past the Post seats at Holyrood combined with the SNP expected to do very well to win lots of constituencies but not on a share of the vote reflecting that success.

The rise of Reform in particular is splitting unionist votes in these constituencies, giving the SNP an advantage to come through the middle and win seats on a lower vote share. This is compounded by the Greens only standing in a handful of constituencies, limiting options for pro-independence voters on the constituency ballot.

The SNP are therefore likely to win the vast majority of constituency seats meaning other parties will make up their wins on the list ballot. However, with the SNP expected to win more seats than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated via list votes, the number seats to be allocated to other parties falls short of the number required to correct the SNP’s overrepresentation wins on the constituency ballot.

A supermajority for independence?

Let’s be clear, this skewed link between seats and votes would be a problem no matter the party benefitting from this flaw. So, to everyone getting excited about the prospect of an SNP majority because of this, or a supermajority for independence, as democrats we should all be concerned by any distortion of the link between seats and votes. Ask yourself, how would you feel if a party you deeply oppose, such as Reform, were to benefit from this in future?

If you genuinely believe it’s a good thing that a party can do disproportionately well by winning constituencies without corrections to their overrepresentation in a mixed-member proportional system, you’re wrong – but at least you’re consistent.

If you’re in favour of this set-up to benefit your party then you should ask yourself some serious questions about your views on representative democracy.

The Additional Member System needs reform

The next Scottish Parliament must address this flaw with the Additional Member System. The simplest way to do this is to correct the imbalance between list and constituency seats, either by introducing leveling seats, adding list seats to each region or by cutting constituency MSPs and replacing them with list MSPs (if politicians are committed to 129 members).

However, these changes will only go so far and won’t address the limited power voters have over electing individuals to represent them, among other flaws of AMS. This could be addressed by switching the list ballot from closed to open, or replacing AMS altogether by introducing the STV (the Single Transferable Vote not the broadcaster this time!) or an open list PR system.

More and more evidence suggests Scotland is on track for its most unrepresentative election. The next parliament must address the issue head on.

READ ON: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

IMAGE VIA PIXABAY

The Scottish Conservative manifesto is here: what does it say on democracy?

By Richard Wood

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has today (Tuesday 7 April 2026) in Edinburgh launched his party’s manifesto exactly one month before the Scottish Parliament election on Thursday 7 May.

The party has dedicated over two pages to democracy and accountability issues. Here’s what they have to say.

What does the manifesto say on democracy and accountability?

The below is taken directly from the manifesto.

To strengthen democracy and accountability, Scottish Conservative MSPs will:

Create a Scottish Information and Whistle blowers Commission – giving whistleblowers a place to expose state failings without fear of being punished.
End the SNP’s culture of secrecy with a Government Transparency Bill.
Require all third-sector organisations receiving taxpayer money to declare this fact explicitly on their website, social media and in front of parliamentary committees if they are giving evidence.
Improve the transparency of public sector decision making by requiring taxpayer-funded pressure groups to disclose their lobbying efforts.
End the use of non-disclosure agreements in the public sector, except for commercial reasons, so that whistleblowers are no longer silenced when they see wrongdoing.
Review charity law to consider whether bodies that receive almost all their funding from government or the public sector should still be classed as charities.
Place new restrictions on political appointments within government and the wider public sector to prevent ministers abusing these powers of patronage.
Introduce a proper Recall Bill that will allow the public to sack MSPs who have broken the rules or are failing to do their job.

Over two pages, you say? What’s on the rest of them?

The manifesto goes into a level of detail on these particular asks, often levelling criticism at the current Scottish Government, highlighting financial prudence and improving transparency and scrutiny.

What chance do the Scottish Conservatives have in May?

Elections are always difficult to predict and campaigns can certainly shift the dial. That all said, based on current polling and mood music across Scotland, the Scottish Conservatives are almost certain to lose a significant number of seats and crucially lose their status as the second largest party.

With the rise of Reform UK, there’s a real risk that this will be the Conservatives’ worst ever Holyrood election result.

The days of Ruth Davidson are gone.

Where can I read the Scottish Conservatives’ manifesto?

The full manifesto can be downloaded and viewed here.

What do you think of Russell Findlay’s plan for Scotland?

SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

By Richard Wood

The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)

MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.

The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.

Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.

This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.

Full results:

SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)

Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)

Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)

Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)

Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)

Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)

We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament

Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.

This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.

These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.

First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.

New poll projection puts SNP on 62 seats with just a third of the vote

By Richard Wood

The latest poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election continues the trend of the SNP coming close to winning a majority of seats on around a third of votes. Talk about unrepresentative democracy.

The poll for Norstat (30 March – 1 April) found 30% of voters would back the SNP in their constituency while 34% would support them on the regional list.

Notably, the poll puts Reform on 15% of the constituency and list vote, down four points from the previous poll in February.

The main headline of this poll should be these unrepresentative seat projections, adding to an emerging trend, suggesting that the SNP are significantly down on their 2021 vote but are estimated to win three seats shy of a majority.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these numbers would give the SNP 62 seats. Labour would be on 20, Reform on 14, the Greens on a record 12, the Lib Dems on their best result since 2007 with 10, and the Conservatives down from second place to fifth with 11 seats.

While the Sunday Times, who commissioned the poll, project 57 seats for the SNP. This is slightly more representative than the BBS projection but still vastly inflates the party’s support.

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

Ballot Box Scotland estimates that if seats were allocated by the proportional list element alone, then the SNP would be on 44 seats, a seat share far more representative than what is currently projected.

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates.

This poll further highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.

Holyrood election 2026: how does Scotland’s voting system work?

By Richard Wood

Voters in Scotland are going to the polls on Thursday 7 May 2026 to elect 129 MSPs.

Here’s how the Scotland’s Additional Member System works.

First Past the Post seats

Scotland is divided into 73 constituencies elected via First Past the Post. In this system, you get one vote for candidates in your constituency. The candidate with the most votes in each constituency wins the seat to become the constituency MSP.

On these seats alone, the share of votes cast for each party across Scotland are unlikely to match up with the proportion of seats won. To address this disproportionality, that’s where the other 56 seats come into play.

Regional party list seats

The country is also divided into eight regions each electing eight MSPs.

With this, you also get another ballot where you vote for a party of your choice. This party list element adds an element of proportionality to the Scottish Parliament so seats broadly match votes (although it’s worth highlighting that the system has proportionality problems that risk being on full display this May).

The allocation of party list seats is determined by list votes cast per party while also taking into account of constituency seats won by each party so seats roughly match votes over all.

If a party does wins lots of constituency seats in a region, they are unlikely to pick up many list seats. This has been the case for the SNP and Scottish Lib Dems in recent years. Similarly, if a party does well on the list ballot but not in constituencies, such as the Scottish Greens, then they will pick up list seats.