Holyrood needs electoral reform: 2026 was Scotland’s least representative election

This week’s Scottish election must be a wake up call to the serious flaws underpinning the Scottish Parliament. The Additional Member System is a massive improvement on First Past the Post, and was proposed by the Scottish Constitutional Convention to deliver proportionality, but this week the voting system produced a parliament with a major mismatch between seats and votes.

Seats did not match votes in 2026

The SNP will return to government on a reduced count of 58 seats – that’s 45% of seats available on 27.2% of the list vote (which is meant to determine the overall representation of the parliament) and 38.2% of the constituency vote. That big mismatch between votes cast and seats won is not being given the attention it deserves.

In fact, if seats matched list votes (which again are meant to shape parties’ overall representation in parliament and correct constituency overrepresentation) the SNP would have won 40 seats, according to analysis by Ballot Box Scotland.

And if we look at how the Additional Member System is supposed to work, whereby regional seats act as a counterweight to overrepresentation on the constituency ballots, the SNP are seriously overrepresented in 2026.

Overhangs occur when a party wins more seats than it should be entitled to if seats were allocated purely on the list vote in each region. On this metric, 2026 is Scotland’s least representative election: the party now 18 overhangs, and the election has the highest ever Gallagher Index (13.7), a good measure of proportionality, with the high being more unrepresentative. In contrast, in 1999 and 2003 there were seven overhangs each won primarily by the then dominant Scottish Labour and previous elections have had Gallagher scores far lower.

Were results proportional within each region as intended, the result would be:SNP: 40 (-18)Reform: 23 (+6)Labour: 21 (+4)Green: 20 (+5)Conservative: 14 (+2)Lib Dem: 11 (+1)If that'd happened it have been first time with any more than two parties on at least 20 MSPs! Big, big difference.
— Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-05-10T11:52:09.820Z

We avoided the nightmare for democracy scenario

Thankfully the SNP did not win an unrepresentative majority on similar votes shares to what ended up being the case, a result that would have been worthy of First Past the Post, but we’re still left with Scotland’s most disproportional election yet.

Whatever your political persuasion, whatever party you support, and whatever your constitutional views, this is wrong. And the same would be said for any party in a similar situation. Here, the SNP benefitted at the expense of Reform, the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Scottish Labour used to benefit in the early days of the parliament although not to this extent. In the future, any other party, such as Reform, could unfairly benefit from this.

The Additional Member System needs reform

I’ve long been banging the drum on the systemic design weakness of Holyrood’s elections, which threatened itself with the potential distortion from Alba’s planned Scottish independence majority in 2021. Thankfully, that didn’t materialise. But the drum still needs to be banged. The warning signs have been around for a long time. And yet here we are.

Scotland’s new MSPs should recognise that the way they were elected, while all fair and proper in the process-sense, goes squarely against the principles defining this voting system.

Why the Additional Member System isn’t working

The main problem shaping this major mismatch in seats and votes is the imbalanced ratio of constituency seats to list seats (73 (57%) to 56 (43%)), bringing with it all the disadvantages of FPTP. The list seats, fixed at 56, only go so far to limit disproportionality.

In 2026, this was exposed by the SNP’s dominance in winning constituency seats, bolstered by them being the only party standing in most constituencies on one side of a political divide that defines Scottish politics (independence). The SNP aren’t that far ahead of other parties but their success in constituency seats is significantly beyond a fragmented unionist opposition and is advantaged by the limited Scottish Green presence and a four-way split among unionist parties.

Options for reform

At a minimum, this should be addressed perhaps by adding additional seats in each region to even out the ratio (an additional two seats per region would take the total seat-count to 145 MSPs, arguably more reflective of a parliament with additional powers). This would go some way to fixing the problem, but wouldn’t be perfect (the SNP won four overhang seats in the North East of Scotland). Or else by introducing levelling seats to address overhangs (where parties win more constituencies than they would be entitled to on a purely proportional system) like in New Zealand.

But problems extend beyond this flaw, the other big problem being that lists are closed, limiting voter power over individual candidates.

The answer to this unrepresentative outcome is a serious review of Holyrood’s electoral foundations and its eventual reform, leading to a modified Additional Member System or the adoption of a system such as the Single Transferable Vote (if designed well) or even Open-List Proportional Representation with levelling seats. STV is already used successfully in Scottish local government while Open List PR would be an upgrade on Wales’ new system, which has abolished its First Past the Post element.

This election should be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The route to change is a two-thirds majority, a hefty mountain to climb but not insurmountable. The 2031 election must be held under a fairer system.

Making the case for electoral reform at Holyrood elsewhere

I’ve been writing extensively about the flaws of the Additional Member System in Scotland in a series of outlets since the election.

Lib Dem Voice (13 May 2026)
Comment Central (26 May 2026)
Unlock Democracy (2 June 2026)

Pre-election:

Comment Central (23 April 2026)

My comments have been picked up in the media here:

The Herald (May 2026)
Scottish Daily Express (May 2026)

Stephen Flynn, Holly Bruce, Thomas Kerr: full list of dual mandate MSPs in 2026

By Richard Wood

The 2026 election has seen a record number of brand new MSPs elected to the Scottish Parliament. Many of these new representatives hold, or held, other elected positions such as MP or Councillor. When an individual holds two elected positions at one time they are said to hold a dual mandate.

Upgrade Holyrood has consistently made the case against dual mandates and welcomed legislation that has banned dual MSP-MPs and MSP-Lords. The legislation also gives councillors elected to a Holyrood a year to step down, minimising disruption at the local level when council election are held a year after Scottish Parliament votes now regularly the case).

The largest block of dual mandate holders comes from the MSP. Most councillors elected as MSPs in 2021 kept both roles until the 2022 election – it remains to be seen whether that will be the case ahead of 2027.

MSP-MPs

This year, two MPs were elected to Holyrood and both of those individuals are standing down from Westminster as a result of new dual mandate restrictions. This will create two by-elections – dates TBC.

Stephen Flynn (MSP for Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine) (MP for Aberdeen South)

Stephen Gethins (MSP for Dundee City East) (MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry)

MSP-Lords

Katy Clark (MSP for West Scotland) (Lord Temporal since 2020)

(Malcolm Offord stepped down from the House of Lords before standing in the election. Unlike Katy Clark)

SNP MSP-councillors

Alex Kerr (MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse) (Cllr in Glasgow)

Colm Merrick (MSP for Glasgow Anniesland) (Cllr in East Renfrewshire)

Dawn Black (MSP for Angus North and Mearns) (Cllr in Aberdeenshire)

Gary Bouse (MSP for Falkirk West) (Cllr in Falkirk)

Heather Anderson (MSP for Dundee City West) (Cllr in Dundee)

Kate Campbell (MSP for Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent) (Cllr in Edinburgh)

Katie Hagmann (MSP for Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley) (Cllr in Dumfries and Galloway)

Lloyd Melville (MSP for Angus South) (Cllr in Angus Council)

Michelle Campbell (MSP for Renfrewshire and North Cardonald) (Cllr in Renfrewshire)

Pauline Stafford (MSP for Bathgate) (Cllr in West Lothian)

Simita Kumar (MSP for Edinburgh South Western) (Cllr in Edinburgh)

Zen Ghani (Glasgow Cathcart and Pollock) (Cllr in Glasgow)

Reform UK MSP-councillors

Duncan Massie (MSP for North East Scotland) (Cllr in Aberdeen)

Julie MacDougall (MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife) (Cllr in Fife)

Thomas Kerr (MSP for Glasgow) (Cllr in Glasgow)

Scottish Labour MSP-councillors

Joe Fagan (MSP for South Scotland) (Cllr in South Lanarkshire)

Scottish Green MSP-councillors

Holly Bruce (MSP for Glasgow Southside) (Cllr in Glasgow)

Kayleigh Kinross-O’Neil (MSP for Edinburgh and Lothians East) (Cllr in Edinburgh)

Kristopher Leask (MSPs for the Highlands and Islands) (Cllr in Orkney)

Scottish Conservative MSP-councillors

None.

Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP councillors

Andrew Baxter (MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch) (Cllr in Highland)

Morven-May MacCallum (MSP for the Highlands and Islands) (Cllr in Highland)

Sanne Dijkstra-Downie (MSP for Edinburgh Northern) (Cllr in Edinburgh)

Yi-Pei Chou Turvey (MSP for North East Scotland) (Cllr in Aberdeenshire)

Dual mandates in Scotland

Dual mandates are ultimately unfair on constituents who deserve full-time representatives solely focusing on their work in one clearly defined area.

That’s why it’s welcome that MSP-MPs and MSP-Lords have been banned. In an ideal world MSP-councillors should also be restricted but the compromise to minimise local level disruption (especially when the process to replace councillors isn’t representative and can alter the make-up of councils) is a sensible compromise for one year.

7 predictions for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections

By Richard Wood

Predictions are frankly a fool’s game and are almost never right. But they are fun to make. These are my largely cautious predictions for the vote on Thursday 7 May 2026.

1. An unrepresentative election

This election will be the most disproportional election in the devolution era. The Gallagher index will be over 10.

Serious discussions will need to be had about the ability of the Additional Member System to deliver representative parliaments.

2. No SNP majority

The SNP will not win a majority. They will remain the largest party and form a minority government. Their vote shares will fall and they will win more seats than they would be entitled to proportionally.

There’s a chance they come very close but with the Scottish Greens in with a chance of winning at least one constituency seat, the Lib Dems targeting multiple seats they could well win, and the unpredictability of Reform UK, I just don’t see the SNP quite getting to 65.

John Swinney’s party will get at least 55 seats and have a good chance of getting at least 60. Having won 64 last time, 65 in 2026 still looks highly unlikely, despite some polls pointing to that possibility.

3. Scottish Lib Dems back from the dead

The Scottish Liberal Democrats will win at least 7 seats including Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and at least one regional seat, up from 4 in 2021.

Remarkably, this will be the first time the party has made net gains in any Scottish Parliament election.

4. Scottish Greens will make history

The Scottish Greens will win their first constituency seat. And if they don’t, they’ll come remarkably close.

5. Reform rise…then fall

Reform will be the second largest party at Holyrood, edging out Scottish Labour though I still think there’s a half decent chance of Labour coming second (albeit on fewer seats than in 2021). Reform will pick up at least one constituency seat.

And at least two of their MSPs will become independents by the end of 2026.

6. The end of the Scottish Conservatives as we know them?

The Scottish Conservatives will implode and have serious discussions about separating from the UK party. Murdo Fraser may be booted out of Holyrood, but his long-held ambition to Brexit his party from Kemi Badenoch’s could become a reality.

7. The end of Keir Starmer…?

Despite no obvious candidate to replace Starmer, these elections as well as those for the Senedd and the English locals will force Starmer to resign. Eventually.

At some point, the political pressure will become too great for him not too though it won’t happen over night. For Labour to be in with a chance of winning again in 2029, timing will be everything.

Yet another poll shows Scotland on track for an unrepresentative election due to AMS

By Richard Wood

A new poll suggests that the Scottish Parliament is on track for a highly unrepresentative election despite Holyrood’s supposedly proportional voting system.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse poll for STV puts the SNP first in terms of list votes, constituency votes and projected seats.

Party	Constituency %	List vote %
SNP	36%	26%
Labour	20%	19%
Green	7%	16%
Reform UK	19%	14%
Conservatives	9%	11%
Lib Dems	10%	10%

In a properly proportional system, seats should broadly match votes cast. But seat projections for this poll indicate a staggering mismatch between seats and votes.

Party	Seat count	Seat %
SNP	60	46.5%
Labour	20	15.5%
Green	16	12.4%
Reform	13	10.1%
Conservatives	10	7.8%
Lib Dems	10	7.8%

The biggest divergence between seats and votes here is with the SNP. Support for the party has fallen dramatically to 26% of list votes and 36% of seats. But projections indicate they are on track for 60 seats – almost half of those available.

The main driver behind this mismatch is driven by the dominance of First Past the Post seats used in Scotland’s Additional Member System, an imbalanced ratio of 73 to 56. This makes it theoretically possible for a party to win a majority on constituency seats alone.

The SNP is doing better than other competitive parties on the constituency ballot, and due to their success, they are on track to win the vast majority of constituency seats and close to a majority of seats overall.

The SNP is set to win more seats than they are entitled to if Holyrood had a mechanism to address parties winning more seats than they proportionally should on the constituency vote. In fact, Ballot Box Scotland estimates that the poll puts them on a staggering 22 seats more than what they should win if seats were determined by the proportional ballot alone in different Scottish regions.

Scotland’s new Parliament is likely going to be highly disproportionate. Holyrood’s new MSPs should address this with electoral reform.

Full details of the poll from STV can be read here.

How many MSPs are retiring in 2026? Is it a record number?

By Richard Wood

UPDATE: There are now 42 MSPs stepping down as of March 2026, according to BBC analysis.

The late June 2025 announcement of Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone’s retirement from Holyrood means that 34 MSPs are stepping down from the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

This figure matches the number of retiring MSPs in 2021. That was the record-high number, meaning that any further announcements will ensure that 2026 has the highest number of retiring MSPs in Holyrood history. Considering the last retirement announcements for 2021 were in March that year, it’s almost certain that 2026 will mark a new record.

That’s perhaps not surprising, with the number of long-standing MSPs from the so-called 1999 club calling it a day, including Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rhoda Grant, Fiona Hyslop and Christine Graeme all stepping down. But it also includes newer MSPs including Humza Yousaf, Mairi Gougeon and Beatrice Wishart.

Age plays a role for some of these MSPs in both categories. As does arguably scandal, with Michael Matheson set to retire as well. Then there’s the wholly valid reason of some MSPs saying they want to spend time raising their young families, away from the demanding nature of a parliamentary role.

How many MSPs have stood down at each election?

So far, the total for 2026 is 34 MSPs (as of 3 July 2025). This matches the previous high of 34 in 2021, which included former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson.

And back in 2016, there were 25 MSPs who stood down (23 who retired and 2 who were deselected by their parties). Among the retirees at this election were former First Minister Alex Salmond, former Scottish Conservative leader Annabelle Goldie and the Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick.

A similar number stepped down at the election before. Among the 20 who retired in 2011 were former Deputy First Minister Nichol Stephen and former Scottish Green co-convenor.

Just 13 MSPs retired in 2007 including independent MSP Dennis Canavan and former Deputy First Minister Jim Wallace.

And in 2003, there were 10 MSPs who stepped down including our shortest-serving First Minister Henry McLeish and Westminster’s 1967 Hamilton by-election winner, the SNP’s Winnie Ewing.

Each year the number has gone up.

2026 – 34*
2021 – 34
2016 – 25
2011 – 20
2007 – 13
2003 – 10
1999 – N/A

*As of July 2025.

Which MSPs are stepping down in 2026?

As of late June 2025, the following 32 MSPs are stepping down:

SNP

Annabelle Ewing, Audrey Nicoll, Bill Kidd, Christine Grahame, Elena Witham, Evelyn Tweed, Fergus Ewing, Fiona Hyslop, Gordon MacDonald, Graeme Dey, Humza Yousaf, James Dornan, Joe FitzPatrick, Mairi Gougeon, Michael Matheson, Michelle Thomson, Natalie Don-Innes, Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rona Mackay, Ruth Maguire, Shona Robinson, Willie Coffey.

Conservatives

Douglas Ross, Edward Mountain, Liz Smith, Maurice Golden, Oliver Mundell.

Labour

Alex Rowley, Richard Leonard.

Liberal Democrats

Beatrice Wishart.

Greens

Alison Johnstone.

Independents

John Mason.

What about 2031?

We’re still along way from the election after 2026. Much will depend on the make-up of the new parliament – with big questions still to be answered like how well will Reform do next year? Will there be a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement? And if John Swinney emerges as First Minister will he step down before 2031 (when he’ll be 67)?

But with so many of the 1999 club now having left Holyrood’s benches, there’s a decent chance that 2031 will be the first election where the number of retiring MSPs is lower than the previous one.