Ballot Box Scotland poll points to an unrepresentative election on 7 May

By Richard Wood

Yet another poll suggests that Scotland is on track for an unrepresentative election despite its use of the broadly proportional Additional Member System.

The Survation poll for Ballot Box Scotland puts the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote and 29% of the regional vote. That is significantly down on the 2021 election, but still well ahead of other parties.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these results would give the SNP 57 seats, which would amount to 44% of seats on the Scottish Parliament. That is a significant mismatch between seats and votes.

While not as stark as other polling projections that put the SNP on course for a majority of seats on far less than a majority of votes, the gap between polled votes and projected seats is far wider than it should be.

The poll puts Reform in second place (20% constituency, 19% list), Labour (20%, 17%), Conservatives (13%, 13%), Lib Dems (10%, 8%), Greens (1%, 11%). The election is less than two weeks away, and as always polls are snapshots not predictions, but an outcome along these lines is looking very likely.

READ MORE: SNP manifesto is limited on democratic reform ahead of 2026 election

New BBS-Exclusive Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 14-21 Apr (vs 16-23 Mar):List:SNP ~ 29% (-3)RUK ~ 19% (+1)Lab ~ 17% (nc)Con ~ 13% (nc)Grn ~ 11% (nc)LD ~ 8% (nc)Constituency:SNP ~ 35% (nc)RUK ~ 20% (+1)Lab ~ 20% (+1)Con ~ 13% (+2)LD ~ 10% (+2)Grn ~ 1% (-7)

— Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-23T07:45:13.805Z

Why is Scotland on track for such an unrepresentative election?

The reason for these projected mismatches of seats and votes is a combination a structural flaw of Scotland’s Additional Member System exposed by changing voting patterns.

A majority of Holyrood seats are determined by First Past the Post (73 constituency seats compared to 56 list seats). The SNP are doing consistently better than the other parties across the vast majority of these constituency seats, but not well enough in vote terms to justify the number seats they could win. The fall in support for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, aided by the rise of Reform, is giving the SNP a clear advantage in many constituencies. And the party is also helped by the lack of Scottish Greens in most constituencies.

READ MORE: Scottish Lib Dems commit to political reforms in 2026 manifesto

What’s the solution?

The problem here is the dominance of First Past the Post in Scotland’s voting system. A simple fix would be to adjust the ratio of constituency seats to list seats to ensure more proportional outcomes.

This could be done by reducing constituency seats to their Westminster equivalents (while splitting Orkney and Shetland into different constituencies) and distrubiting the remaining seats on a proportional regional basis as done now.

Or alternatively, if politicians aren’t wedded to the idea of retaining 129 seats, then an additional two MSPs could be added to each region to make a 50/50 split.

That all said, while these would be positive steps, the Additional Member System would still have notable flaws. Adopting a well designed Single Transferable Vote system or Open List Proportional Representation are viable alternatives to consider.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?