Holyrood needs electoral reform: 2026 was Scotland’s least representative election

By Richard Wood

This week’s Scottish election must be a wake up call to the serious flaws underpinning the Scottish Parliament. The Additional Member System is a massive improvement on First Past the Post, and was proposed by the Scottish Constitutional Convention to deliver proportionality, but this week the voting system produced a parliament with a major mismatch between seats and votes.

Seats did not match votes in 2026

The SNP will return to government on a reduced count of 58 seats – that’s 45% of seats available on 27.2% of the list vote (which is meant to determine the overall representation of the parliament) and 38.2% of the constituency vote. That big mismatch between votes cast and seats won is not being given the attention it deserves.

In fact, if seats matched list votes (which again are meant to shape parties’ overall representation in parliament and correct constituency overrepresentation) the SNP would have won 40 seats, according to analysis by Ballot Box Scotland.

And if we look at how the Additional Member System is supposed to work, whereby regional seats act as a counterweight to overrepresentation on the constituency ballots, the SNP are seriously overrepresented in 2026.

Overhangs occur when a party wins more seats than it should be entitled to if seats were allocated purely on the list vote in each region. On this metric, 2026 is Scotland’s least representative election: the party now 18 overhangs, and the election has the highest ever Gallagher Index (13.7), a good measure of proportionality, with the high being more unrepresentative. In contrast, in 1999 and 2003 there were seven overhangs each won primarily by the then dominant Scottish Labour and previous elections have had Gallagher scores far lower.

Were results proportional within each region as intended, the result would be:SNP: 40 (-18)Reform: 23 (+6)Labour: 21 (+4)Green: 20 (+5)Conservative: 14 (+2)Lib Dem: 11 (+1)If that'd happened it have been first time with any more than two parties on at least 20 MSPs! Big, big difference.

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-05-10T11:52:09.820Z

We avoided the nightmare for democracy scenario

Thankfully the SNP did not win an unrepresentative majority on similar votes shares to what ended up being the case, a result that would have been worthy of First Past the Post, but we’re still left with Scotland’s most disproportional election yet.

Whatever your political persuasion, whatever party you support, and whatever your constitutional views, this is wrong. And the same would be said for any party in a similar situation. Here, the SNP benefitted at the expense of Reform, the Greens, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Scottish Labour used to benefit in the early days of the parliament although not to this extent. In the future, any other party, such as Reform, could unfairly benefit from this.

READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

The Additional Member System needs reform

I’ve long been banging the drum on the systemic design weakness of Holyrood’s elections, which threatened itself with the potential distortion from Alba’s planned Scottish independence majority in 2021. Thankfully, that didn’t materialise. But the drum still needs to be banged. The warning signs have been around for a long time. And yet here we are.

Scotland’s new MSPs should recognise that the way they were elected, while all fair and proper in the process-sense, goes squarely against the principles defining this voting system.

READ MORE: 12 reasons why the UK needs Proportional Representation now

Why the Additional Member System isn’t working

The main problem shaping this major mismatch in seats and votes is the imbalanced ratio of constituency seats to list seats (73 (57%) to 56 (43%)), bringing with it all the disadvantages of FPTP. The list seats, fixed at 56, only go so fast in limiting disproportionality.

In 2026, this was exposed by the SNP’s dominance in winning constituency seats, bolstered by them being the only party standing in most constituencies on one side of a political divide that defines Scottish politics (independence). The SNP aren’t that far ahead of other parties but their success in constituency seats is significantly beyond a fragmented unionist opposition and is advantaged by the limited Scottish Green presence and a four-way split among unionist parties.

READ MORE: Plaid Cymru’s 2026 manifesto commits to upgrading Wales’ voting system

Options for reform

At a minimum, this should be addressed perhaps by adding additional seats in each region to even out the ratio (an additional two seats per region would take the total seat-count to 145 MSPs, arguably more reflective of a parliament with additional powers). This would go some way to fixing the problem, but wouldn’t be perfect (the SNP won four overhang seats in the North East of Scotland). Or else by introducing levelling seats to address overhangs (where parties win more constituencies than they would be entitled to on a purely proportional system) like in New Zealand.

But problems extend beyond this flaw, the other big problem being that lists are closed, limiting voter power over individual candidates.

The answer to this unrepresentative outcome is a serious review of Holyrood’s electoral foundations and its eventual reform, leading to a modified Additional Member System or the adoption of a system such as the Single Transferable Vote (if designed well) or even Open-List Proportional Representation with levelling seats. STV is already used successfully in  Scottish local government while Open List PR would be an upgrade on Wales’ new system, which has abolished its First Past the Post element.

This election should be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The route to change is a two-thirds majority, a hefty mountain to climb but not insurmountable. The 2031 election must be held under a fairer system.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Making the case for electoral reform at Holyrood elsewhere

I’ve been writing extensively about the flaws of the Additional Member System in Scotland in a series of outlets since the election.

These will be listed here.

READ MORE: Stephen Flynn, Holly Bruce, Thomas Kerr: full list of dual mandate MSPs in 2026

Ballot Box Scotland poll points to an unrepresentative election on 7 May

By Richard Wood

Yet another poll suggests that Scotland is on track for an unrepresentative election despite its use of the broadly proportional Additional Member System.

The Survation poll for Ballot Box Scotland puts the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote and 29% of the regional vote. That is significantly down on the 2021 election, but still well ahead of other parties.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these results would give the SNP 57 seats, which would amount to 44% of seats on the Scottish Parliament. That is a significant mismatch between seats and votes.

While not as stark as other polling projections that put the SNP on course for a majority of seats on far less than a majority of votes, the gap between polled votes and projected seats is far wider than it should be.

The poll puts Reform in second place (20% constituency, 19% list), Labour (20%, 17%), Conservatives (13%, 13%), Lib Dems (10%, 8%), Greens (1%, 11%). The election is less than two weeks away, and as always polls are snapshots not predictions, but an outcome along these lines is looking very likely.

READ MORE: SNP manifesto is limited on democratic reform ahead of 2026 election

New BBS-Exclusive Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 14-21 Apr (vs 16-23 Mar):List:SNP ~ 29% (-3)RUK ~ 19% (+1)Lab ~ 17% (nc)Con ~ 13% (nc)Grn ~ 11% (nc)LD ~ 8% (nc)Constituency:SNP ~ 35% (nc)RUK ~ 20% (+1)Lab ~ 20% (+1)Con ~ 13% (+2)LD ~ 10% (+2)Grn ~ 1% (-7)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-23T07:45:13.805Z

Why is Scotland on track for such an unrepresentative election?

The reason for these projected mismatches of seats and votes is a combination a structural flaw of Scotland’s Additional Member System exposed by changing voting patterns.

A majority of Holyrood seats are determined by First Past the Post (73 constituency seats compared to 56 list seats). The SNP are doing consistently better than the other parties across the vast majority of these constituency seats, but not well enough in vote terms to justify the number seats they could win. The fall in support for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, aided by the rise of Reform, is giving the SNP a clear advantage in many constituencies. And the party is also helped by the lack of Scottish Greens in most constituencies.

READ MORE: Scottish Lib Dems commit to political reforms in 2026 manifesto

What’s the solution?

The problem here is the dominance of First Past the Post in Scotland’s voting system. A simple fix would be to adjust the ratio of constituency seats to list seats to ensure more proportional outcomes.

This could be done by reducing constituency seats to their Westminster equivalents (while splitting Orkney and Shetland into different constituencies) and distributing the remaining seats on a proportional regional basis as done now.

Or alternatively, if politicians aren’t wedded to the idea of retaining 129 seats, then an additional two MSPs could be added to each region to make a 50/50 split.

That all said, while these would be positive steps, the Additional Member System would still have notable flaws. Adopting a well designed Single Transferable Vote system or Open List Proportional Representation are viable alternatives to consider.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Scottish Lib Dems commit to political reforms in 2026 manifesto

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are the last of Scotland’s six main parties to publish their manifesto ahead of elections on Thursday 7 May.

Their plans for Scotland were announced on Friday 17 April, one day after the SNP published their own document.

Overall, the Scottish Lib Dems have some promising policies in their manifesto on the issues of democratic and electoral reform.

Changing the Additional Member System

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are the only one of the six main parties to have explicitly committed to replacing Holyrood’s Additional Member System with a fairer alternative, in this case the Single Transferable Vote.

Scotland is on track for its least representative election ever, yet other parties have failed to grasp the seriousness of this. If designed well, STV would improve proportionality and, crucially, strengthen voter power over individual candidates up for election.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Introducing an Accountability Act

An eye-catching proposal is Alex Cole-Hamilton’s plan for an Accountability Act, which would improve ministerial accountability and introduce a recall rule for MSPs.

READ MORE: SNP manifesto is limited on democratic reform ahead of 2026 election

Protect devolution

The Scottish Lib Dems have also pledged to protect drovlution by removing the ability of the UK Parliament to unilaterally change the powers of devolved parliaments.

There are also proposals to reform Quangos, implement a federal, written constitution, and devolve power to local communities.

The full Scottish Liberal Democrat manifesto is available to download here.

READ MORE: Manifesto 2026: How would Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar reform democracy?

What do you think of the Lib Dems manifesto? How does it compare to the other five, or any proposals put forward by minor parties?

Scottish Green democracy pledges announced in 2026 manifesto

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Greens launched their manifesto on Tuesday 14 April, just shy of three weeks before the election in May. The party are hoping for their best ever Holyrood election result and made those intentions clear at their launch in Glasgow.

My first thought looking at the manifesto was how the title stands out as being very familiar. If you’ve had the same thought it’s because it’s rather reminiscent of a previous Liberal Democrat slogan “demand better”.

The Scottish Lib Dem manifesto is due on Friday while the SNP are expected to publish theirs on Thursday.

This follows Reform, the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour who have all published their plans.

Independence and democracy

Unsurprisingly, the Greens reaffirm their commitment to independence, linking it with their wider policies on democracy in one clear section. Notably the party doesn’t even mention a referendum but calls for the devolution of foreign affairs.

Positive steps to improve Scottish democracy include a proposals for a Trust and Transparency Strategy and the introduction of a recall rule for MSPs.

The ending of cash deposits for election candidates is also welcome as that would democratise Scotland’s nominations process. Automatic voter registration is also a good inclusion, highlighting the absurdity that such a system isn’t already in place.

READ MORE: Manifesto 2026: How would Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar reform democracy?

Local democracy

The manifesto also has a dedicated section on local democracy.

One eye-catching proposal is the move towards making councillors a full-time position. That is something which needs a lot more thinking and financing to make it feasible.

The party also wants to reform the way vacancies are filled when councillors resign from their position. There’s a lack of detail here, but the obvious alternative to disruptive and non-representative by-elections is co-option. However, any co-option proposals would need to have strong democratic safeguards.

READ MORE: Reform UK’s manifesto: Malcolm Offord’s party on Scottish democracy

What about voting system reform?

Disappointingly, the party lacks any commitment to replace Scotland’s failing Additional Member System.

Their 2021 manifesto also lacked such a commitment while their 2016 document committed them to the Single Transferable Vote.

The party did however outline it’s support for Proportional Representation at all levels of governance in the 2024 UK General Election.

But that all said, it’s striking that there are no proposals to reform Holyrood’s Additional Member System as we hurtle towards what’s likely to be Scotland’s most disproportional election ever.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Manifesto 2026: How would Scottish Labour and Anas Sarwar reform democracy?

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar published his party’s manifesto for the 2026 election on Monday 13 April 2026. Here’s what the party has pledged to do if it defies the odds and is returned to power after nineteen years in opposition at Holyrood.

Scottish Labour want regional mayors for regions that want them

The manifesto commits the party to consulting on regional mayors, learning from blueprints in England. This isn’t a surprise and has been floated by Anas Sarwar previously. Crucially, the party only supports mayors if there is local support.

Regional mayors sound like an answer to re-energise local democracy in Scotland by having one single figure of accountability who can champion local interests. But regional mayors risk putting a lot of power into one person’s hands while also limiting multi-party politics at a time where people have a wide range of views on issues. Any proposals for such mayors should be carefully considered, as representative as possible and actively supported by local people. They’re not necessarily right for Scotland, but if they do ever go ahead they must be robust as possible with strong safeguards to ensure multi-party representation and real voter power over them.

READ MORE: 3 tests Anas Sarwar’s Scottish metro mayor plans must meet

Anas Sarwar hopes to decentrentralise power away from Holyrood

The other plank of Scottish Labour’s limited democracy plans for Scotland is to “push decision making power out of Holyrood so local people have more of a say over public services” as part of a Local Democracy Act.

They pledge to: “Push power out of Holyrood and grant Scottish regions the opportunity to take control of local skills and employability schemes, transport, and housingso they can tailor interventions to ocal needs andencourage cooperation between local authorities toreduce duplication and deliver economic outcomes.”

There’s also an interesting idea to force statutory consultations when local councils plan to cut local services such as libraries.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Ambitious plans to enhance accountability at Holyrood: second job rules and empowering committees

After a worrying manifesto from Reform on the democracy front and lacklustre democracy reform proposals from the Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour have some welcome ideas to improve accountability in the Scottish Parliament.

This includes welcome regulation over on second jobs for MSPs and lobbying.

There’s also a proposal to introduce a right to recall MSPs who don’t live up to public standards, which is welcome to see after proposals faltered in the last parliament.

Scottish Labour also want to strengthen committees by giving them teeth to compel witnesses and by electing committee convenors, which is due to happen regardless.

The proposal to provide parliamentary privilege to MSPs is also welcome to strengthen the legitimacy of MSPs on a par with MPs who already have that right.

And lastly, there’s another welcome pledge to split the role of the Lord Advocate to separate the responsibilities of Scotland’s chief prosecutor and the Scottish Government’s legal advisor, a proposal that’s long over due.

READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

What about voting system reform?

The manifesto makes no mention of improving Scotland’s Additional Member System which could well deliver Scotland’s least representative election since 1999.

Disappointingly, there’s also no commitment to revert to four-year fixed terms so voters have a more regular say on who represents them.

Have the SNP, the Scottish Lib Dems and other parties published their manifestos?

Reform UK launched their Scottish manifesto first, publishing their document at the end of March.

While the Russell Findlay’s Scottish Conservatives published theirs on Tuesday 7 April, a month before the vote.

The SNP, Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats are yet to publish their own policies ahead of the vote.

The full Scottish Labour manifesto can be read here.

Images taken from Scottish Labour election manifesto 2026.

READ MORE: Reform UK’s manifesto: Malcolm Offord’s party on Scottish democracy

READ MORE: The Scottish Conservative manifesto is here: what does it say on democracy?

Latest poll shows how First Past the Post is failing Scotland’s Additional Member System

By Richard Wood

The new Ipsos poll for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) adds to existing evidence that Scotland is on track for the most unrepresentative election in Holyrood’s short history. The SNP are on track to win far more seats than they would be entitled to under a truly proportional system.

STV and Ballot Box Scotland projections for the poll (data collected 26 – 31 March) puts the SNP on 63 seats with just 39% of the list vote and 29% of the regional vote.

That’s a big disparity between seats and votes yet again even if not as stark as other polls such a Find Out Now’s recent MRP poll.

READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

In fact, the scale of this is shown by comparing these projected results with the results if all seats were allocated via the list element alone, which is meant to determine the proportional make-up of the Scottish Parliament. Using this measure, the SNP are actually 20 seats ahead of where they should be. The Greens, Labour and Conservatives are underrepresented by 4 seats, Reform by 5 and the Lib Dems by 3.

Ipsos 26-31 Mar seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:SNP ~ 63 (+3 / nc); 43Grn ~ 17 (+1 / +7); 21RUK ~ 15 (+2 / +15); 20Lab ~ 14 (-6 / -7); 18Con ~ 12 (+2 / -19); 16LD ~ 8 (-2 / +4); 11(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-08T11:04:52.527Z

First Past the Post is wrecking the Additional Member System

The reason for these projected mismatches between seat and vote shares is the dominance of First Past the Post seats at Holyrood combined with the SNP expected to do very well to win lots of constituencies but not on a share of the vote reflecting that success.

The rise of Reform in particular is splitting unionist votes in these constituencies, giving the SNP an advantage to come through the middle and win seats on a lower vote share. This is compounded by the Greens only standing in a handful of constituencies, limiting options for pro-independence voters on the constituency ballot.

The SNP are therefore likely to win the vast majority of constituency seats meaning other parties will make up their wins on the list ballot. However, with the SNP expected to win more seats than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated via list votes, the number seats to be allocated to other parties falls short of the number required to correct the SNP’s overrepresentation wins on the constituency ballot.

A supermajority for independence?

Let’s be clear, this skewed link between seats and votes would be a problem no matter the party benefitting from this flaw. So, to everyone getting excited about the prospect of an SNP majority because of this, or a supermajority for independence, as democrats we should all be concerned by any distortion of the link between seats and votes. Ask yourself, how would you feel if a party you deeply oppose, such as Reform, were to benefit from this in future?

If you genuinely believe it’s a good thing that a party can do disproportionately well by winning constituencies without corrections to their overrepresentation in a mixed-member proportional system, you’re wrong – but at least you’re consistent.

If you’re in favour of this set-up to benefit your party then you should ask yourself some serious questions about your views on representative democracy.

READ MORE: Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May

The Additional Member System needs reform

The next Scottish Parliament must address this flaw with the Additional Member System. The simplest way to do this is to correct the imbalance between list and constituency seats, either by introducing leveling seats, adding list seats to each region or by cutting constituency MSPs and replacing them with list MSPs (if politicians are committed to 129 members).

However, these changes will only go so far and won’t address the limited power voters have over electing individuals to represent them, among other flaws of AMS. This could be addressed by switching the list ballot from closed to open, or replacing AMS altogether by introducing the STV (the Single Transferable Vote not the broadcaster this time!) or an open list PR system.

More and more evidence suggests Scotland is on track for its most unrepresentative election. The next parliament must address the issue head on.

READ ON: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

IMAGE VIA PIXABAY

The Scottish Conservative manifesto is here: what does it say on democracy?

By Richard Wood

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay has today (Tuesday 7 April 2026) in Edinburgh launched his party’s manifesto exactly one month before the Scottish Parliament election on Thursday 7 May.

The party has dedicated over two pages to democracy and accountability issues. Here’s what they have to say.

READ MORE: What does Reform UK’s 2026 manifesto say on reforming Holyrood and the constitution?

What does the manifesto say on democracy and accountability?

The below is taken directly from the manifesto.

To strengthen democracy and accountability, Scottish Conservative MSPs will:

  • Create a Scottish Information and Whistle blowers Commission – giving whistleblowers a place to expose state failings without fear of being punished.
  • End the SNP’s culture of secrecy with a Government Transparency Bill.
  • Require all third-sector organisations receiving taxpayer money to declare this fact explicitly on their website, social media and in front of parliamentary committees if they are giving evidence.
  • Improve the transparency of public sector decision making by requiring taxpayer-funded pressure groups to disclose their lobbying efforts.
  • End the use of non-disclosure agreements in the public sector, except for commercial reasons, so that whistleblowers are no longer silenced when they see wrongdoing.
  • Review charity law to consider whether bodies that receive almost all their funding from government or the public sector should still be classed as charities.
  • Place new restrictions on political appointments within government and the wider public sector to prevent ministers abusing these powers of patronage.
  • Introduce a proper Recall Bill that will allow the public to sack MSPs who have broken the rules or are failing to do their job.

READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

Over two pages, you say? What’s on the rest of them?

The manifesto goes into a level of detail on these particular asks, often levelling criticism at the current Scottish Government, highlighting financial prudence and improving transparency and scrutiny.

What chance do the Scottish Conservatives have in May?

Elections are always difficult to predict and campaigns can certainly shift the dial. That all said, based on current polling and mood music across Scotland, the Scottish Conservatives are almost certain to lose a significant number of seats and crucially lose their status as the second largest party.

With the rise of Reform UK, there’s a real risk that this will be the Conservatives’ worst ever Holyrood election result.

The days of Ruth Davidson are gone.

Where can I read the Scottish Conservatives’ manifesto?

The full manifesto can be downloaded and viewed here.

What do you think of Russell Findlay’s plan for Scotland?

READ MORE: When did each Scottish party launch its manifesto in 2021? When are we expecting in 2026?

SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

By Richard Wood

The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)

MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.

The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.

Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.

Our projection for Scottish Parliament based on the latest Find Out Now MRP for @scotnational.bsky.social 🎗️ SNP — 61🌹 Lab — 19➡️ Ref — 17🌱 GP — 14🐤 LD — 10🌳 Con — 8Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Devolved Election Projections (@devolvedelections.bsky.social) 2026-04-06T19:18:29.578Z

This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Full results:

  • SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)
  • Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)
  • Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)
  • Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)
  • Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)
  • Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament

Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.

This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.

These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.

First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.

READ MORE: Holyrood election 2026: how does Scotland’s voting system work?

New poll projection puts SNP on 62 seats with just a third of the vote

By Richard Wood

The latest poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election continues the trend of the SNP coming close to winning a majority of seats on around a third of votes. Talk about unrepresentative democracy.

The poll for Norstat (30 March – 1 April) found 30% of voters would back the SNP in their constituency while 34% would support them on the regional list.

Notably, the poll puts Reform on 15% of the constituency and list vote, down four points from the previous poll in February.

The main headline of this poll should be these unrepresentative seat projections, adding to an emerging trend, suggesting that the SNP are significantly down on their 2021 vote but are estimated to win three seats shy of a majority.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these numbers would give the SNP 62 seats. Labour would be on 20, Reform on 14, the Greens on a record 12, the Lib Dems on their best result since 2007 with 10, and the Conservatives down from second place to fifth with 11 seats.

While the Sunday Times, who commissioned the poll, project 57 seats for the SNP. This is slightly more representative than the BBS projection but still vastly inflates the party’s support.

READ MORE: Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May

Norstat 30 Mar – 1 Apr seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:SNP ~ 62 (nc / -1); 44Lab ~ 20 (+2 / -1); 24RUK ~ 14 (-7 / +14); 21Grn ~ 12 (+1 / +2); 15LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12Con ~ 11 (+1 / -20); 13(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-04T21:05:11.370Z

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

Ballot Box Scotland estimates that if seats were allocated by the proportional list element alone, then the SNP would be on 44 seats, a seat share far more representative than what is currently projected.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates.

This poll further highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

What electoral reform promises did Scotland’s parties make in their 2021 manifestos?

By Richard Wood

As we await the publication of manifestos from the five parties elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2021, it’s worth taking a look back at what each party said in 2021.

Scottish Greens

The Greens were the first of the five main parties to release their manifesto, launching their plan for Scotland on Wednesday 14 April 2021. The manifesto focused on green issues, restructuring the economy and Scottish independence. It also had a section on “Local democracy and communities” with the party pledging to:

  • Deliver empowered, genuinely local councils (more powers and an overall restructuring)
  • Oppose Ministerial vetoes over local decisions
  • Promote more diverse local representation
  • More local, democratic ownership
  • Additional participatory democracy with citizens assembly to be formalised at both local and national levels

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

The Scottish National Party (SNP)

The SNP secured a historic fourth term at Holyrood in 2021, and were second to launch their manifesto (Thursday 15 April 2021). The party pledged to:

  • Create a Citizens’ Assembly for under 16s
  • Extend the entitlement to stand for election to all those entitled to vote
  • Introduce a Local Democracy Bill to further empower local communities and to ensure that decisions are most closest to those who they will impact the most

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Willie Rennie’s Scottish Liberal Democrats launched their manifesto on Friday 16 April 2021, hoping to build on the five MSPs they won in 2016 but in actual fact lost one seat. In typical Lib Dem fashion party’s 2021 manifesto was full of policies designed to improve Scottish democracy. The party pledged to:

  • Introduce a new fiscal framework to improve council funding, as well as more powers for local councils including the ability to set domestic and business taxation areas
  • Create a New Contempt of Parliament rule so minority governments cannot ignore the Scottish Parliament as a whole
  • Replace the Additional Member System with the Single Transferable Vote for Scottish Parliament elections
  • Return to four-year parliamentary terms
  • Work with other parties to further a culture of respect and use the pandemic experience go make Holyrood more flexible and Family friendly
  • Introduce a recall system for MSPs
  • Strengthen and expand the public’s right to information and introduce a new duty to record so the public can access information on important ministerial meetings
  • Increase usage of Citizens’ Assemblies

Scottish Conservatives and Unionists

The Scottish Conservatives’ launched their own manifesto on Monday 19 April 2021. Their proposal to introduce a recall rule was the most eye-catching of all, but in the end the proposal was flawed and didn’t make it into law. The party proposed to:

  • Introduce a recall rule for MSPs (Mackay’s law) – this would allow the public to re MSPs who have broken the law, grossly undermined trust or failed to contribute to parliament for over six months
  • Retain votes at 16 for all Scottish elections
  • Implement a cross-party commission on improving how the Scottish Parliament operates and to improve Scottish Government scrutiny
  • Explore how to modernise the working practices of the Scottish Parliament to make them more suitable for MSPs with young families
  • Cut the cabinet from 12 to six members and freeze MSP and ministerial pay across the next parliament

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Douglas Ross MP (by David Woolfall • CC BY 3.0)

Scottish Labour

Scottish Labour were the last of the main five parties in Scotland to launch their manifesto. Anas Sarwar’s party unveiled their policy priorities on Thursday 23 April and are hoping to take second place from the Scottish Conservatives. The party’s main proposals on Scottish democracy are to:

  • Devolve further powers to Holyrood (borrowing and employment rights)
  • Introduce a Clean Up Holyrood Commission
  • Elect Holyrood committee conveners via the whole Scottish Parliament
  • Give Holyrood committees more powers
  • Further devolve powers to local government
  • Introduce a “Right to Space” to ensure communities have places to meet and funding to build the capacity to participate as active citizens
Source: Scottish Parliament (2017), CC BY 3.0

When will manifestos be published in 2026?

Just one of the six parties expected to win seats at Holyrood this year has published their manifesto. Reform UK unveiled their platform last month alongside their candidates, with many of those candidates no longer in those roles…

Last time, the other five published their manifestos in a tight window mid-April. By the end of April, we will have all major manifesto ahead of the vote on Thursday 7 May.

READ MORE: Reform UK’s manifesto: Malcolm Offord’s party on Scottish democracy