By Richard Wood
The new Ipsos poll for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) adds to existing evidence that Scotland is on track for the most unrepresentative election in Holyrood’s short history. The SNP are on track to win far more seats than they would be entitled to under a truly proportional system.
STV and Ballot Box Scotland projections for the poll (data collected 26 – 31 March) puts the SNP on 63 seats with just 39% of the list vote and 29% of the regional vote.
That’s a big disparity between seats and votes yet again even if not as stark as other polls such a Find Out Now’s recent MRP poll.
READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll
In fact, the scale of this is shown by comparing these projected results with the results if all seats were allocated via the list element alone, which is meant to determine the proportional make-up of the Scottish Parliament. Using this measure, the SNP are actually 20 seats ahead of where they should be. The Greens, Labour and Conservatives are underrepresented by 4 seats, Reform by 5 and the Lib Dems by 3.
First Past the Post is wrecking the Additional Member System
The reason for these projected mismatches between seat and vote shares is the dominance of First Past the Post seats at Holyrood combined with the SNP expected to do very well to win lots of constituencies but not on a share of the vote reflecting that success.
The rise of Reform in particular is splitting unionist votes in these constituencies, giving the SNP an advantage to come through the middle and win seats on a lower vote share. This is compounded by the Greens only standing in a handful of constituencies, limiting options for pro-independence voters on the constituency ballot.
The SNP are therefore likely to win the vast majority of constituency seats meaning other parties will make up their wins on the list ballot. However, with the SNP expected to win more seats than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated via list votes, the number seats to be allocated to other parties falls short of the number required to correct the SNP’s overrepresentation wins on the constituency ballot.
A supermajority for independence?
Let’s be clear, this skewed link between seats and votes would be a problem no matter the party benefitting from this flaw. So, to everyone getting excited about the prospect of an SNP majority because of this, or a supermajority for independence, as democrats we should all be concerned by any distortion of the link between seats and votes. Ask yourself, how would you feel if a party you deeply oppose, such as Reform, were to benefit from this in future?
If you genuinely believe it’s a good thing that a party can do disproportionately well by winning constituencies without corrections to their overrepresentation in a mixed-member proportional system, you’re wrong – but at least you’re consistent.
If you’re in favour of this set-up to benefit your party then you should ask yourself some serious questions about your views on representative democracy.
READ MORE: Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May
The Additional Member System needs reform
The next Scottish Parliament must address this flaw with the Additional Member System. The simplest way to do this is to correct the imbalance between list and constituency seats, either by introducing leveling seats, adding list seats to each region or by cutting constituency MSPs and replacing them with list MSPs (if politicians are committed to 129 members).
However, these changes will only go so far and won’t address the limited power voters have over electing individuals to represent them, among other flaws of AMS. This could be addressed by switching the list ballot from closed to open, or replacing AMS altogether by introducing the STV (the Single Transferable Vote not the broadcaster this time!) or an open list PR system.
More and more evidence suggests Scotland is on track for its most unrepresentative election. The next parliament must address the issue head on.
READ ON: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?
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