Latest poll shows how First Past the Post is failing Scotland’s Additional Member System

The new Ipsos poll for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) adds to existing evidence that Scotland is on track for the most unrepresentative election in Holyrood’s short history. The SNP are on track to win far more seats than they would be entitled to under a truly proportional system.

STV and Ballot Box Scotland projections for the poll (data collected 26 – 31 March) puts the SNP on 63 seats with just 39% of the list vote and 29% of the regional vote.

That’s a big disparity between seats and votes yet again even if not as stark as other polls such a Find Out Now’s recent MRP poll.

In fact, the scale of this is shown by comparing these projected results with the results if all seats were allocated via the list element alone, which is meant to determine the proportional make-up of the Scottish Parliament. Using this measure, the SNP are actually 20 seats ahead of where they should be. The Greens, Labour and Conservatives are underrepresented by 4 seats, Reform by 5 and the Lib Dems by 3.

First Past the Post is wrecking the Additional Member System

The reason for these projected mismatches between seat and vote shares is the dominance of First Past the Post seats at Holyrood combined with the SNP expected to do very well to win lots of constituencies but not on a share of the vote reflecting that success.

The rise of Reform in particular is splitting unionist votes in these constituencies, giving the SNP an advantage to come through the middle and win seats on a lower vote share. This is compounded by the Greens only standing in a handful of constituencies, limiting options for pro-independence voters on the constituency ballot.

The SNP are therefore likely to win the vast majority of constituency seats meaning other parties will make up their wins on the list ballot. However, with the SNP expected to win more seats than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated via list votes, the number seats to be allocated to other parties falls short of the number required to correct the SNP’s overrepresentation wins on the constituency ballot.

A supermajority for independence?

Let’s be clear, this skewed link between seats and votes would be a problem no matter the party benefitting from this flaw. So, to everyone getting excited about the prospect of an SNP majority because of this, or a supermajority for independence, as democrats we should all be concerned by any distortion of the link between seats and votes. Ask yourself, how would you feel if a party you deeply oppose, such as Reform, were to benefit from this in future?

If you genuinely believe it’s a good thing that a party can do disproportionately well by winning constituencies without corrections to their overrepresentation in a mixed-member proportional system, you’re wrong – but at least you’re consistent.

If you’re in favour of this set-up to benefit your party then you should ask yourself some serious questions about your views on representative democracy.

The Additional Member System needs reform

The next Scottish Parliament must address this flaw with the Additional Member System. The simplest way to do this is to correct the imbalance between list and constituency seats, either by introducing leveling seats, adding list seats to each region or by cutting constituency MSPs and replacing them with list MSPs (if politicians are committed to 129 members).

However, these changes will only go so far and won’t address the limited power voters have over electing individuals to represent them, among other flaws of AMS. This could be addressed by switching the list ballot from closed to open, or replacing AMS altogether by introducing the STV (the Single Transferable Vote not the broadcaster this time!) or an open list PR system.

More and more evidence suggests Scotland is on track for its most unrepresentative election. The next parliament must address the issue head on.

READ ON: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

IMAGE VIA PIXABAY

SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

By Richard Wood

The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)

MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.

The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.

Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.

This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.

Full results:

SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)

Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)

Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)

Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)

Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)

Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)

We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament

Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.

This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.

These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.

First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.

New poll projection puts SNP on 62 seats with just a third of the vote

By Richard Wood

The latest poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election continues the trend of the SNP coming close to winning a majority of seats on around a third of votes. Talk about unrepresentative democracy.

The poll for Norstat (30 March – 1 April) found 30% of voters would back the SNP in their constituency while 34% would support them on the regional list.

Notably, the poll puts Reform on 15% of the constituency and list vote, down four points from the previous poll in February.

The main headline of this poll should be these unrepresentative seat projections, adding to an emerging trend, suggesting that the SNP are significantly down on their 2021 vote but are estimated to win three seats shy of a majority.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these numbers would give the SNP 62 seats. Labour would be on 20, Reform on 14, the Greens on a record 12, the Lib Dems on their best result since 2007 with 10, and the Conservatives down from second place to fifth with 11 seats.

While the Sunday Times, who commissioned the poll, project 57 seats for the SNP. This is slightly more representative than the BBS projection but still vastly inflates the party’s support.

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

Ballot Box Scotland estimates that if seats were allocated by the proportional list element alone, then the SNP would be on 44 seats, a seat share far more representative than what is currently projected.

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates.

This poll further highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.