Latest poll shows how First Past the Post is failing Scotland’s Additional Member System

By Richard Wood

The new Ipsos poll for STV (the broadcaster, not the voting system) adds to existing evidence that Scotland is on track for the most unrepresentative election in Holyrood’s short history. The SNP are on track to win far more seats than they would be entitled to under a truly proportional system.

STV and Ballot Box Scotland projections for the poll (data collected 26 – 31 March) puts the SNP on 63 seats with just 39% of the list vote and 29% of the regional vote.

That’s a big disparity between seats and votes yet again even if not as stark as other polls such a Find Out Now’s recent MRP poll.

READ MORE: SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

In fact, the scale of this is shown by comparing these projected results with the results if all seats were allocated via the list element alone, which is meant to determine the proportional make-up of the Scottish Parliament. Using this measure, the SNP are actually 20 seats ahead of where they should be. The Greens, Labour and Conservatives are underrepresented by 4 seats, Reform by 5 and the Lib Dems by 3.

Ipsos 26-31 Mar seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:SNP ~ 63 (+3 / nc); 43Grn ~ 17 (+1 / +7); 21RUK ~ 15 (+2 / +15); 20Lab ~ 14 (-6 / -7); 18Con ~ 12 (+2 / -19); 16LD ~ 8 (-2 / +4); 11(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-08T11:04:52.527Z

First Past the Post is wrecking the Additional Member System

The reason for these projected mismatches between seat and vote shares is the dominance of First Past the Post seats at Holyrood combined with the SNP expected to do very well to win lots of constituencies but not on a share of the vote reflecting that success.

The rise of Reform in particular is splitting unionist votes in these constituencies, giving the SNP an advantage to come through the middle and win seats on a lower vote share. This is compounded by the Greens only standing in a handful of constituencies, limiting options for pro-independence voters on the constituency ballot.

The SNP are therefore likely to win the vast majority of constituency seats meaning other parties will make up their wins on the list ballot. However, with the SNP expected to win more seats than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated via list votes, the number seats to be allocated to other parties falls short of the number required to correct the SNP’s overrepresentation wins on the constituency ballot.

A supermajority for independence?

Let’s be clear, this skewed link between seats and votes would be a problem no matter the party benefitting from this flaw. So, to everyone getting excited about the prospect of an SNP majority because of this, or a supermajority for independence, as democrats we should all be concerned by any distortion of the link between seats and votes. Ask yourself, how would you feel if a party you deeply oppose, such as Reform, were to benefit from this in future?

If you genuinely believe it’s a good thing that a party can do disproportionately well by winning constituencies without corrections to their overrepresentation in a mixed-member proportional system, you’re wrong – but at least you’re consistent.

If you’re in favour of this set-up to benefit your party then you should ask yourself some serious questions about your views on representative democracy.

READ MORE: Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May

The Additional Member System needs reform

The next Scottish Parliament must address this flaw with the Additional Member System. The simplest way to do this is to correct the imbalance between list and constituency seats, either by introducing leveling seats, adding list seats to each region or by cutting constituency MSPs and replacing them with list MSPs (if politicians are committed to 129 members).

However, these changes will only go so far and won’t address the limited power voters have over electing individuals to represent them, among other flaws of AMS. This could be addressed by switching the list ballot from closed to open, or replacing AMS altogether by introducing the STV (the Single Transferable Vote not the broadcaster this time!) or an open list PR system.

More and more evidence suggests Scotland is on track for its most unrepresentative election. The next parliament must address the issue head on.

READ ON: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

IMAGE VIA PIXABAY

SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

By Richard Wood

The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)

MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.

The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.

Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.

Our projection for Scottish Parliament based on the latest Find Out Now MRP for @scotnational.bsky.social 🎗️ SNP — 61🌹 Lab — 19➡️ Ref — 17🌱 GP — 14🐤 LD — 10🌳 Con — 8Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Devolved Election Projections (@devolvedelections.bsky.social) 2026-04-06T19:18:29.578Z

This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

Full results:

  • SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)
  • Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)
  • Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)
  • Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)
  • Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)
  • Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament

Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.

This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.

These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.

First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.

READ MORE: Holyrood election 2026: how does Scotland’s voting system work?

New poll projection puts SNP on 62 seats with just a third of the vote

By Richard Wood

The latest poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election continues the trend of the SNP coming close to winning a majority of seats on around a third of votes. Talk about unrepresentative democracy.

The poll for Norstat (30 March – 1 April) found 30% of voters would back the SNP in their constituency while 34% would support them on the regional list.

Notably, the poll puts Reform on 15% of the constituency and list vote, down four points from the previous poll in February.

The main headline of this poll should be these unrepresentative seat projections, adding to an emerging trend, suggesting that the SNP are significantly down on their 2021 vote but are estimated to win three seats shy of a majority.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these numbers would give the SNP 62 seats. Labour would be on 20, Reform on 14, the Greens on a record 12, the Lib Dems on their best result since 2007 with 10, and the Conservatives down from second place to fifth with 11 seats.

While the Sunday Times, who commissioned the poll, project 57 seats for the SNP. This is slightly more representative than the BBS projection but still vastly inflates the party’s support.

READ MORE: Scotland’s voting system is broken – another poll suggests seats won’t match votes this May

Norstat 30 Mar – 1 Apr seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:SNP ~ 62 (nc / -1); 44Lab ~ 20 (+2 / -1); 24RUK ~ 14 (-7 / +14); 21Grn ~ 12 (+1 / +2); 15LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12Con ~ 11 (+1 / -20); 13(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-04-04T21:05:11.370Z

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

Ballot Box Scotland estimates that if seats were allocated by the proportional list element alone, then the SNP would be on 44 seats, a seat share far more representative than what is currently projected.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates.

This poll further highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

What electoral reform promises did Scotland’s parties make in their 2021 manifestos?

By Richard Wood

As we await the publication of manifestos from the five parties elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2021, it’s worth taking a look back at what each party said in 2021.

Scottish Greens

The Greens were the first of the five main parties to release their manifesto, launching their plan for Scotland on Wednesday 14 April 2021. The manifesto focused on green issues, restructuring the economy and Scottish independence. It also had a section on “Local democracy and communities” with the party pledging to:

  • Deliver empowered, genuinely local councils (more powers and an overall restructuring)
  • Oppose Ministerial vetoes over local decisions
  • Promote more diverse local representation
  • More local, democratic ownership
  • Additional participatory democracy with citizens assembly to be formalised at both local and national levels

READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

The Scottish National Party (SNP)

The SNP secured a historic fourth term at Holyrood in 2021, and were second to launch their manifesto (Thursday 15 April 2021). The party pledged to:

  • Create a Citizens’ Assembly for under 16s
  • Extend the entitlement to stand for election to all those entitled to vote
  • Introduce a Local Democracy Bill to further empower local communities and to ensure that decisions are most closest to those who they will impact the most

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Willie Rennie’s Scottish Liberal Democrats launched their manifesto on Friday 16 April 2021, hoping to build on the five MSPs they won in 2016 but in actual fact lost one seat. In typical Lib Dem fashion party’s 2021 manifesto was full of policies designed to improve Scottish democracy. The party pledged to:

  • Introduce a new fiscal framework to improve council funding, as well as more powers for local councils including the ability to set domestic and business taxation areas
  • Create a New Contempt of Parliament rule so minority governments cannot ignore the Scottish Parliament as a whole
  • Replace the Additional Member System with the Single Transferable Vote for Scottish Parliament elections
  • Return to four-year parliamentary terms
  • Work with other parties to further a culture of respect and use the pandemic experience go make Holyrood more flexible and Family friendly
  • Introduce a recall system for MSPs
  • Strengthen and expand the public’s right to information and introduce a new duty to record so the public can access information on important ministerial meetings
  • Increase usage of Citizens’ Assemblies

Scottish Conservatives and Unionists

The Scottish Conservatives’ launched their own manifesto on Monday 19 April 2021. Their proposal to introduce a recall rule was the most eye-catching of all, but in the end the proposal was flawed and didn’t make it into law. The party proposed to:

  • Introduce a recall rule for MSPs (Mackay’s law) – this would allow the public to re MSPs who have broken the law, grossly undermined trust or failed to contribute to parliament for over six months
  • Retain votes at 16 for all Scottish elections
  • Implement a cross-party commission on improving how the Scottish Parliament operates and to improve Scottish Government scrutiny
  • Explore how to modernise the working practices of the Scottish Parliament to make them more suitable for MSPs with young families
  • Cut the cabinet from 12 to six members and freeze MSP and ministerial pay across the next parliament

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Douglas Ross MP (by David Woolfall • CC BY 3.0)

Scottish Labour

Scottish Labour were the last of the main five parties in Scotland to launch their manifesto. Anas Sarwar’s party unveiled their policy priorities on Thursday 23 April and are hoping to take second place from the Scottish Conservatives. The party’s main proposals on Scottish democracy are to:

  • Devolve further powers to Holyrood (borrowing and employment rights)
  • Introduce a Clean Up Holyrood Commission
  • Elect Holyrood committee conveners via the whole Scottish Parliament
  • Give Holyrood committees more powers
  • Further devolve powers to local government
  • Introduce a “Right to Space” to ensure communities have places to meet and funding to build the capacity to participate as active citizens
Source: Scottish Parliament (2017), CC BY 3.0

When will manifestos be published in 2026?

Just one of the six parties expected to win seats at Holyrood this year has published their manifesto. Reform UK unveiled their platform last month alongside their candidates, with many of those candidates no longer in those roles…

Last time, the other five published their manifestos in a tight window mid-April. By the end of April, we will have all major manifesto ahead of the vote on Thursday 7 May.

READ MORE: Reform UK’s manifesto: Malcolm Offord’s party on Scottish democracy

Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

By Richard Wood

Concern is growing ahead of the 2026 election that the result after 7 May will be the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament vote ever.

Proportionality was one of the founding principles of the design of Scotland’s Additional Member System. It’s not perfect, but since 1999 seats have broadly matched votes. Now, due to a combination of the imbalance of constituency to list seats (73 to 56) and one party expected to do well in constituencies despite falling well short of a majority of the constituency vote, the next Scottish Parliament is likely to fall well short of the proportional standards expected.

READ MORE: Scotland must follow Wales on four-year terms

Are MSPs able to abolish the Additional Member System?

If election projections come true, the next parliament must seize the moment and find consensus to fix Holyrood’s creaking voting system.

The way to do this is through a Bill passed with a supermajority in Holyrood. That’s two-thirds of MSPs. Therefore any change requires broad consensus from multiple parties to meet the magic number of 86 MSPs.

READ MORE: Yet another poll shows Scotland on track for an unrepresentative election due to AMS

Is change likely?

The possibility of electoral reform in Scotland depends on what happens after the election. The bigger the disproportionality, the more pressure there will be on MSPs and ministers to act.

The SNP, Lib Dems and Scottish Greens all support Proportional Representation. And together, they are likely to have a two-thirds majority, but finding agreement on the type of reform will be the challenge – not to mention conflicts in the SNP about maintaining the status-quo for their own advantage versus their commendable party stance on the issue.

There are certainly issues needing ironed out. But there is precedent for this in the devolution era. In Wales, Labour and Plaid Cymru came together to abolish the Additional Member System ahead of their own 2026 vote, and in Scotland, the Lib Dems convinced their coalition partners Labour to introduce STV for Scottish local government.

Holyrood is turning 30 in the next parliament. It’s time to review Scotland’s democratic foundations and reform the voting system once and for all.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban by 2026 backed by the Scottish Government

Yet another poll shows Scotland on track for an unrepresentative election due to AMS

By Richard Wood

A new poll suggests that the Scottish Parliament is on track for a highly unrepresentative election despite Holyrood’s supposedly proportional voting system.

The Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse poll for STV puts the SNP first in terms of list votes, constituency votes and projected seats.

PartyConstituency %List vote %
SNP36%26%
Labour20%19%
Green7%16%
Reform UK19%14%
Conservatives9%11%
Lib Dems10%10%

In a properly proportional system, seats should broadly match votes cast. But seat projections for this poll indicate a staggering mismatch between seats and votes.

PartySeat countSeat %
SNP6046.5%
Labour2015.5%
Green1612.4%
Reform1310.1%
Conservatives107.8%
Lib Dems107.8%

The biggest divergence between seats and votes here is with the SNP. Support for the party has fallen dramatically to 26% of list votes and 36% of seats. But projections indicate they are on track for 60 seats – almost half of those available.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

The main driver behind this mismatch is driven by the dominance of First Past the Post seats used in Scotland’s Additional Member System, an imbalanced ratio of 73 to 56. This makes it theoretically possible for a party to win a majority on constituency seats alone.

The SNP is doing better than other competitive parties on the constituency ballot, and due to their success, they are on track to win the vast majority of constituency seats and close to a majority of seats overall.

The SNP is set to win more seats than they are entitled to if Holyrood had a mechanism to address parties winning more seats than they proportionally should on the constituency vote. In fact, Ballot Box Scotland estimates that the poll puts them on a staggering 22 seats more than what they should win if seats were determined by the proportional ballot alone in different Scottish regions.

Ipsos 19-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:SNP ~ 60 (nc / -3); 38Lab ~ 20 (+1 / -1); 25Grn ~ 16 (-1 / +6); 22RUK ~ 13 (-4 / +13); 18Con ~ 10 (-1 / -21); 14LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

Ballot Box Scotland (@ballotbox.scot) 2026-03-04T12:14:19.995Z

Scotland’s new Parliament is likely going to be highly disproportionate. Holyrood’s new MSPs should address this with electoral reform.

Full details of the poll from STV can be read here.

READ MORE: Scotland must follow Wales on four-year terms

New Scottish poll shows why it’s time to ditch Holyrood’s voting system

By Richard Wood

The latest poll from Ipsos shows why it’s time to ditch the Additional Member System used to elect MSPs.

The company’s latest survey grabbed the headlines for placing Reform second, behind the SNP, on the constituency vote. Neither Nigel Farage’s rising party, nor UKIP before it, have even won seats at Holyrood so this result would be a seismic shift in voter behaviour.

However, beneath the headlines of Reform’s surge, the polling numbers alongside seat projections tell a different story. One of a creaking electoral system past its best.

The poll puts the SNP on 35% and 28% for constituency and list vote shares respectively. According to projections by Ballot Box Scotland, that is estimated to give the party 60 seats. That’s almost 47% of seats available.

The difference is staggering. Under AMS where seats are meant to match list vote share, BBS projects that the party would likely win around 40 seats. That’s still above the 28% of seats they would be entitled to under a fully proportional system (usual caveats about different voting systems impacting voting intention).

The biggest difference here is with the SNP. The party has lost significant support since 2021 but benefits from a fragmented unionist vote, with four parties competing for anti-independence voters – namely the Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives and Reform.

BBS projects Scottish Labour would win 19 seats if Scotland voted like this. That’s 4 fewer than if a more proportional AMS was used (23).

Reform lose out the most, projected to win 6 short of the 23 they would win in a “better AMS”.

The Greens are projected to win 17 seats (AMS ideal: 21), the Conservatives 11 (AMS ideal: 14) and the Lib Dems 5 (compared to 8 under AMS ideal).

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

This result would mark a major shift in Scottish party politics, and a major decline in support for the Westminster duopoly. But that change risks not being fully shown in terms of seats.

Next year marks 27 years of devolution and the seventh Scottish election. Wales has reviewed and changed its fairly disproportional voting system for something somewhat better. Scotland’s seventh parliament should legislate to do the same.

READ MORE: Scotland’s STV council elections show England a better way of doing local democracy

The risk of 2021 was Alex Salmond’s Alba gaming the system to win a disproportionate independence supermajority. As we know, that outcome never emerged. This time, the threat of a seriously disproportionate election result comes from something much more likely. If the results in May look something like this, let’s hope they’re a wake-up call to our new legislators.

How many MSPs are retiring in 2026? Is it a record number?

By Richard Wood

UPDATE: There are now 42 MSPs stepping down as of March 2026, according to BBC analysis.

The late June 2025 announcement of Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone’s retirement from Holyrood means that 34 MSPs are stepping down from the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

This figure matches the number of retiring MSPs in 2021. That was the record-high number, meaning that any further announcements will ensure that 2026 has the highest number of retiring MSPs in Holyrood history. Considering the last retirement announcements for 2021 were in March that year, it’s almost certain that 2026 will mark a new record.

That’s perhaps not surprising, with the number of long-standing MSPs from the so-called 1999 club calling it a day, including Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rhoda Grant, Fiona Hyslop and Christine Graeme all stepping down. But it also includes newer MSPs including Humza Yousaf, Mairi Gougeon and Beatrice Wishart.

Age plays a role for some of these MSPs in both categories. As does arguably scandal, with Michael Matheson set to retire as well. Then there’s the wholly valid reason of some MSPs saying they want to spend time raising their young families, away from the demanding nature of a parliamentary role.

READ MORE: Minority mayors and unrepresentative local government: England can learn from Scottish councils

How many MSPs have stood down at each election?

So far, the total for 2026 is 34 MSPs (as of 3 July 2025). This matches the previous high of 34 in 2021, which included former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson.

And back in 2016, there were 25 MSPs who stood down (23 who retired and 2 who were deselected by their parties). Among the retirees at this election were former First Minister Alex Salmond, former Scottish Conservative leader Annabelle Goldie and the Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick.

A similar number stepped down at the election before. Among the 20 who retired in 2011 were former Deputy First Minister Nichol Stephen and former Scottish Green co-convenor.

Just 13 MSPs retired in 2007 including independent MSP Dennis Canavan and former Deputy First Minister Jim Wallace.

And in 2003, there were 10 MSPs who stepped down including our shortest-serving First Minister Henry McLeish and Westminster’s 1967 Hamilton by-election winner, the SNP’s Winnie Ewing.

Each year the number has gone up.

  • 2026 – 34*
  • 2021 – 34
  • 2016 – 25
  • 2011 – 20
  • 2007 – 13
  • 2003 – 10
  • 1999 – N/A

*As of July 2025.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Which MSPs are stepping down in 2026?

As of late June 2025, the following 32 MSPs are stepping down:

SNP

Annabelle Ewing, Audrey Nicoll, Bill Kidd, Christine Grahame, Elena Witham, Evelyn Tweed, Fergus Ewing, Fiona Hyslop, Gordon MacDonald, Graeme Dey, Humza Yousaf, James Dornan, Joe FitzPatrick, Mairi Gougeon, Michael Matheson, Michelle Thomson, Natalie Don-Innes, Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rona Mackay, Ruth Maguire, Shona Robinson, Willie Coffey.

Conservatives

Douglas Ross, Edward Mountain, Liz Smith, Maurice Golden, Oliver Mundell.

Labour

Alex Rowley, Richard Leonard.

Liberal Democrats

Beatrice Wishart.

Greens

Alison Johnstone.

Independents

John Mason.

What about 2031?

We’re still along way from the election after 2026. Much will depend on the make-up of the new parliament – with big questions still to be answered like how well will Reform do next year? Will there be a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement? And if John Swinney emerges as First Minister will he step down before 2031 (when he’ll be 67)?

But with so many of the 1999 club now having left Holyrood’s benches, there’s a decent chance that 2031 will be the first election where the number of retiring MSPs is lower than the previous one.

READ MORE: Scotland’s STV council elections show England a better way of doing local democracy

Minority mayors and unrepresentative local government: England can learn from Scottish councils

By Richard Wood

This year’s local elections showed the unfairness of First Past the Post in action. A third of England went to the ballot box this May, but seats ultimately failed to reflect votes thanks to the unrepresentative voting system.

Unrepresentative local government

As with the House of Commons elections, English councils are elected via First Past the Post. And of course, the same problems persist at the local level: citizens aren’t fairly represented. Take, Kent County Council where Reform won a majority of seats on 37% of the vote. Our Shropshire where the Lib Dems took a majority of seats on a minority of votes.

England’s local electoral system is not first for purpose. Especially in the age of multi-party politics.

There’s a lesson here to be learnt from Scotland. Local authorities from Dumfries & Galloway to Shetland have successfully used STV to elect councillors since 2017. STV ensures that how Scots vote is reflected in local councils, so why not England? The upcoming elections Bill strikes as a clear opportunity to push this issue.

READ MORE: Scotland’s STV council elections show England a better way of doing local democracy

Minority mayors

Unlike Scotland, England also has a number of directly elected executive mayors. This year six mayoralities were up for grabs, now all elected using First Past the Post having either previously been voted via the Supplementary Vote or brand new mayors. All mayors were elected with less than half the vote. The worst culprit here was the West of England where Labour’s candidate won on 25% of the vote.

Greater Lincolnshire: Andrea Jenkyns (Reform): 42.0%

Hull and East Yorkshire: Luke Campbell (Reform ) 35.8%

Doncaster: Ros Jones (Labour): 32.6%

North Tynside: Karen Clark (Labour): 30.2%

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough: Paul Bristow (Conservative): 28.4%

West of England: Helen Godwin (Labour): 25.0%

With such weak mandates, while there are flaws with single-member executive positions, if we are to have them in England they should be elected via preferential voting (the Alternative Vote also known as ranked choice voting).

The current system of low votes is unsustainable.

Similarly, while Scotland doesn’t have mayors currently, if they are introduced after the Holyrood elections they should be elected via such a preferential method.

English local government needs reform. Scotland had the answers.

READ MORE: 3 tests Anas Sarwar’s Scottish metro mayor plans must meet

IMAGE VIA PIXABAY

Carney’s Liberals win in Canada a decade on from Trudeau’s promise to abolish FPTP

By Richard Wood

Before the return of Donald Trump, Canada’s Conservative looked set to sail to power in 2025, ending a decade of Liberal rule. But a maverick president and his trade war have shifted the dial dramatically, resulting in Liberal Mark Carney returning as Prime Minister, having called an early election just weeks into the job. The Conservative leader even lost his seat.

There are of course significant geopolitical implications flowing from this development as the world grapple with an emboldened President Trump, but it’s important to examine Canada’s election through the lens of electoral reform.

The flaws of First Past the Post exposed once again

Like the UK, Canada uses the unrepresentative First Past the Post system to elect MPs. As in 2024’s UK General Election, Canada has been given a parliament that doesn’t fairly reflect how people vote.

The Liberals have likely won just shy of a majority of seats on around 43% of the vote (although with some places still counting a majority government is still technically possible). Their vote share is the party’s largest in decades but that doesn’t legitimise the country’s unfair voting system and shouldn’t lead them to winning almost half the seats available.

The Conservatives have in fact won a vote share roughly proportional to the number of seats they won, but that is a rarity in FPTP politics and doesn’t mitigate the fact that millions of Canadians voted Conservative but are without direct Conservative representation.

Then there’s the NDP. The party have suffered at the hands of their former voters turning on them and backing Carney to oppose Poilievre and Trump. The party has been reduced to just 2% of seats on 6% of the vote, significantly fewer than if seats matched votes.

Of course, while the NDP stand across Canada and Bloc Québécois in only one province, the parties won similar vote shares but notably different numbers of seats (the Bloc doing better by winning over 20 seats).

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Two wrong-winner elections

Carney’s win follows two elections (2019 and 2021) where the Liberals under Justin Trudeau won the most seats, forming minority governments, but on fewer votes than the Conservatives.

While Canadians have avoided a third wrong-winner election in a row, seats overall still don’t match votes and voters are stuck with single-member ridings where MPs can’t fairly represent all their constituents.

READ MORE: Quebec’s 2022 election – First Past the Post strikes again

Canada’s missed opportunity for Proportional Representation

Most campaigners for electoral reform across the English speaking world will know that Trudeau famously promised to abolish First Past the Post ahead of the 2015.

His party leapfrogged from third to first-place, forming a government with a majority of seats, then U-turned, making no effort to reform the voting system despite a decade in power.

Frustratingly, as in the UK, First Past the Post remains in place to this day. Voting reform didn’t even get a mention in Carney’s 2025 manifesto.

Canada, like the UK, has a strong case to give FPTP the boot and embrace Proportional Representation.

READ MORE: How proportional are Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections?

(IMAGE: licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license)