By Richard Wood
The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.
🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)
MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.
The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.
Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.
This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.
READ MORE: Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?
Full results:
- SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)
- Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)
- Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)
- Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)
- Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)
- Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)
READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament
We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament
Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.
This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.
These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.
First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.
READ MORE: Holyrood election 2026: how does Scotland’s voting system work?
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