Welsh politics

The previous Welsh government, an effective coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and an independent, introduced legislation that gives Welsh local councils the opportunity to switch from First Past the Post to the Single Transferable Vote ahead of the 2027 elections. The deadline for councils to change to Proportional Representation is fast approaching: 15 November 2024.

The Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021, which enables councils to make changes, was a great step forward as it allows the opportunity for significant upgrades to Welsh local democracy. However, unlike when Scottish councils were upgraded to use STV from 2007, there is no automatic switchover in Wales. While this is an imperfect process to reform and reformers are fighting an uphill battle, there is a route to change.

Of the three councils to hold consultations for making the switch, all three consultations show majority support for reform. But what’s next? And are any of the councils actually saying goodbye to First Past the Post?

What happened in Gwynned?

Over 70% of residents who completed the consultation supported switching to the Single Transferable Vote in this Plaid Cymru majority council. A vote followed, and while a majority of councillors backed change, STV will not be adopted in Gwynned as a two-thirds majority was required.

Campaigners have done fantastic work engaging communities and growing support for STV but on this occasion the Gwynned council will not be switching to STV.

And what about Powys?

The Lib Dem-Labour-Green run council of Powys has parallels with Gwynned. Over 60% of residents said they favoured STV in the council’s consultation. This should come as no surprise due to the considerable failings of FPTP in the area. However, as in Gwynned, councillors voted to retain the status-quo. A total of 21 voted for STV while 33 backed FPTP.

Ceredigion: the last hope for STV in Wales?

In Ceredigon, 67% of respondents to the consultation backed the Single Transferable Vote. What’s clear is that when people are asked if they want a fair voting system, majorities in Wales are supportive of reform but the bar for reform) change is set very high – a two-thirds majority of councillors elected by a system that favours them.

The Electoral Reform Society reports that Ceredigion councillors will be voting on their electoral system on Thursday 14 November.

UPDATE (14 November 2024): while a majority of councillors backed the motion (18 to 17), the two-thirds majority was not met, meaning that all Welsh councils will use FPTP in 2027).

The Plaid Cymru Council has a chance of becoming the only one of 22 Welsh councils to use STV in the 2027 local elections.

Let’s hope the efforts of electoral reform campaigners in Wales pay off and Ceredigon leads the way for further change across Wales.

Political make up of Ceredigion council:

🟢 PLAID CYMRU 21

⚪ INDEPENDENTS 9

🟠 LIB DEMS 7

⚫ GWLAD 1

Total councillors: 38

Threshold required to switch to STV: 26

Nationally, both the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru support STV as a matter of policy but local factors will also play a role. If all Plaid and Lib Dem councillors back change then STV would be used for the 2027 elections in Ceredigon.

By Richard Wood

On 18 September 2023, Mick Antoniw MS, Counsel General and Minister for the Constitution, laid the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill before the Senedd. The Bill outlines a series of reforms, as part of the Welsh Labour and Plaid Cyrmu cooperation agreement, the Welsh democracy.

The headline changes are the switch from the Additional Member System (AMS) to a Closed List Proportional voting system and an increase to 96 Members of the Senedd.

One important change which hasn’t received much attention is a return to four-year terms. This means that, if the Bill becomes law, after the planned 2026 election the next Welsh election will be 2030 – not 2031.

This switch to four-year terms will improve accountability and strengthen the link between voters and their representatives. There’s no right answer as to how often elections should be, but five-year terms lead to zombie governments (just look at Westminster right now) and limited accountability. They also mean voters going to the polls just twice a decade. Two-year terms on the other hand lead to constant electioneering as seen in the states. And there’s definitely an element of this in Australia and New Zealand, which have three year terms, as well as limited ability to take long-term actions. Four-year terms however, strike a sensible balance between accountability and stable governance. The Welsh Government’s reform is the right move.

Unfortunately, like Wales, Scotland moved to five-year terms in the Scottish Elections (Reform) Act in 2020 to accommodate the UK’s now repealed Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. The next planned election after 2026 will be 2031, one year after Wales’ next vote after 2026. There’s nothing wrong with devolved elections being out of sync but the accountability deficit in Scotland will be larger than in Wales. Holyrood can do better. To empower voters, and hold MSPs to account, that should change.

The Scottish Parliament needs a democratic upgrade – Holyrood should follow the Senedd and return to four-year terms. Parties should consider this ahead of the 2026 election.

Image via Pixabay

Tag: Welsh politics

STV in local government: the latest from Wales

What happened in Gwynned?

And what about Powys?

Ceredigion: the last hope for STV in Wales?

Scotland must follow Wales on four-year terms