Tag: Senedd

Senedd passes recall rule ahead of Welsh election – Scotland should follow

By Richard Wood

The Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) voted to pass the Senedd Cymru (Member Accountability and Elections) Bill on Tuesday 17 March.

The Bill soon to be Act outlines some key reforms, changing democratic processes at play in the next Welsh Parliament.

Members of the Senedd (MSs) backed the Bill, which includes the introduction of recall rules for MSs to be recalled and replaced after the next election in certain specific circumstances.

Empowering constituents to hold their representatives accountable builds on other welcome reforms in Wales – reforms that the next Scottish Parliament should consider. The Senedd recently reverted to four-year terms (a change that will further improve accountability) and introduced a new voting system, which, while not perfect, is a step-up from the Additional Member System previously used for Cardiff Bay elections.

READ MORE: Yet another poll shows Scotland on track for an unrepresentative election due to AMS

How does the Senedd recall system work?

The law introduces a recall system triggered either automatically by any prison sentence, even suspended ones, or following a recommendation from the Standards of Conduct Committee for serious misconduct. This is subject to a Senedd-wide vote.

An empty seat would be filled automatically by the next available candidate on the party’s list. This has its merits by retaining proportionality in the Senedd, but does limit Senedd accountability from voters.

The new law also strengthens the standards system by requiring each Senedd to establish a committee with possible independent members, expands the Commissioner for Standards’ investigative powers, and requires the Welsh Government to ban false statements in Senedd election rules. This last one is, in theory a positive development, but will have significant challenges to ensure is proportionate and effective.

READ MORE Will the Scottish Parliament change its voting system?

What about Westminster’s recall system?

Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, an MP faces recall if they are convicted of an offence and receive a prison sentence, suspended from the House of Commons for at least 10 sitting days (or 14 calendar days), or found guilty of false or misleading expenses claims. If 10% of voters sign a recall petition, the seat is vacated and a by-election is triggered.

READ MORE: Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

Attempts to introduce a recall rule in Scotland

MSPs recently rejected an attempt to bring in a recall rule at the end of February. The Scottish Parliament (Recall and Removal of Members) Bill had flaws, but it was a missed opportunity to strengthen accountability of rule-breaking and inefficient MSPs in a meaningful way.

Constituency MSPs would have been recalled if 10% of local voters supported a petition, like at Westminster. Regional MSPs would have been removed if a majority voted for recall, with replacements coming from their party list. In addition, independent MSP seats would stay vacant until the next election.

READ MORE: How many MSPs are retiring in 2026? Is it a record number?

How proportional are Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish elections?

By Richard Wood

A system of Proportional Representation (PR) is one that ensures that how people vote at the ballot box is reflected in parliament. Unlike Westminster elections, in which the unrepresentative First Past the Post is used system to elect MPs (PR), the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and Northern Irish Assembly all use a form of PR to elect their legislators.

However, just because a legislature uses a PR system, doesn’t mean that results are purely proportional. The extent of proportionality depends on the type of system used and various parameters such as district magnitude and the ratio of list seats to single-member electorates if applicable. When it comes to PR elections within the UK, proportionality is a question of extent for these reasons.

Scottish Parliament

The Scottish Parliament uses the Additional Member System (AMS) to elect MSPs. Voters get two votes: one for their local constituency representative (using a First Past the Post voting system) and one for the regional list. Constituency votes are counted and seats allocated first. Party votes in each region are then added together to allocate regional MSPs. Crucially, regional MSPs are allocated by taking into account the number of MSPs won by each party in the constituencies to ensure broadly proportional results overall.

So, how proportional are Scottish Parliament elections?

One of the best ways to answer this question is to look at the Gallagher Index for Scottish Parliament elections. Simply put, a Gallagher Index for any election is a measure of proportionality that can be used to compare elections across time and between countries. The lower the score for an election, the more proportional it is.

For context, the Gallagher Index for the 2019 UK General Election was 11.8. Canada also uses First Past the Post and had a score of 13.39 in 2019. These are fairly disproportional results.

In contrast, the Scottish Parliament’s scores are on average considerably lower – meaning more proportional as we would expect with its Additional Member System. On average, Scottish Parliament elections have a Gallagher Index of 7. The vote in 2016 was 5.60 and 2021 was 7.03.

Overall, Scottish Parliament elections are pretty proportional but the extend of proportionality is limited by the ratio of constituency to list seats and overhangs. While Holyrood is more representative than Westminster, after almost 25 years of devolution, the Scottish Parliament needs reform.

READ MORE: 7 reforms to improve the Scottish Parliament

Welsh Senedd

The Welsh Parliament also uses the Additional Member System to elect its representatives, however, it’s proportionality is even more limited than Holyrood’s. This is mainly due to the fact that the ratio of constituency to list seats is skewed in favour of the former, with just 20 list seats to 40 list seats. Compare that to the 73 list seats and 56 constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament. Furthermore, Welsh electoral regions each only have four representatives compared to the seven in each Scottish region. With fewer MSs per region, the effective threshold for a party getting representatives is significantly higher than in Scotland.

When it comes to the Gallagher Index, since the institution’s creation in 1999, the six elections have had an average score of 10.57. The most recent Welsh election had a score of 9.36. In that election, Labour won more than half of the single-member constituencies but the additional element of proportionality ensure a more proportional result. However, if you dig a little deeper you will see that votes don’t match seats too well – Labour won 29 of the 60 seats available on just 31.5% of the regional vote.

Overall, Welsh elections are more representative than those for Westminster but not as representative as those for Holyrood.

READ MORE: Time is running out for fair local government in Wales

Northern Ireland

Unlike the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, Northern Irish elections use the Single Transferable Vote to elect MLAs.

Under STV, the province is divided into multi-member constituencies (with five-members each). Voters rank candidates in order of preference resulting in proportional outcomes overall. Since 1998, there have been seven Northern Ireland Assembly elections with an average Gallagher Index of 4.33. However, the most recent election had a score of 7.80, a high in the modern era under STV.

Overall, Northern Irish elections are very proportional, and as they use STV they don’t have the problems associated with the Additional Member System.

READ MORE: Northern Ireland Assembly election – the benefits of Proportional Representation

Source: Gallagher Indexes by country (Michael Gallagher)