New Scottish poll shows why it’s time to ditch Holyrood’s voting system

The latest poll from Ipsos shows why it’s time to ditch the Additional Member System used to elect MSPs.

The company’s latest survey grabbed the headlines for placing Reform second, behind the SNP, on the constituency vote. Neither Nigel Farage’s rising party, nor UKIP before it, have even won seats at Holyrood so this result would be a seismic shift in political behaviour.

However, beneath the headlines of Reform’s surge, the polling numbers alongside seat projections tell a different story. One of a creaking electoral system past its best.

The poll puts the SNP on 35% and 28% for constituency and list vote shares respectively. According to projections by Ballot Box Scotland, that is estimated to give the party 60 seats. That’s almost 47% of seats available.

The difference is staggering. Under AMS where seats are meant to match list vote share, BBS projects that the party would likely win around 40 seats. That’s still above the 28% of seats they would be entitled to under a fully proportional system (usual caveats about different voting systems impacting voting intention).

The biggest difference here is with the SNP. The party has lost significant support since 2021 but benefits from a fragmented unionist vote, with four parties competing for anti-independence voters – namely the Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives and Reform.

BBS projects Scottish Labour would win 19 seats if Scotland voted like this. That’s 4 fewer than if a more proportional AMS was used (23).

Reform lose out the most, projected to win 6 short of the 23 they would win in a “better AMS”.

The Greens are projected to win 17 seats (AMS ideal: 21), the Conservatives 11 (AMS ideal: 14) and the Lib Dems 5 (compared to 8 under AMS ideal).

This result would mark a major shift in Scottish party politics, and a major decline in support for the Westminster duopoly. But that change risks not being fully shown in terms of seats.

Next year marks 27 years of devolution and the sixth Scottish election. Wales has reviewed and changed its fairly disproportional voting system for something somewhat better. Scotland’s sixth parliament should legislate to do the same.

The risk of 2021 was Alex Salmond’s Alba gaming the system to win a disproportionate independence supermajority. As we know, that outcome never emerged. This time, the threat of a seriously disproportionate election result comes from something much more likely. If the results in May look something like this, let’s hope they’re a wake-up call to our new legislators.

Kate Forbes is stepping down in 2026. A record number of MSPs aren’t standing again

By Richard Wood

Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes is stepping down as an MSP at the next Scottish Parliamentary election.

Her upcoming departure marks a record number of MSPs standing down at any Holyrood election.

The announcement came as a shock to much of the Scottish political scene after she contested the 2023 SNP leadership election and secured Scotland’s second top job under First Minister John Swinney last year.

In a letter to the FM on 4 August 2025, the DFM said she does not wish to “miss any more of the precious early years of family life.

After careful thought over recess, I’ve decided not to seek re-election to @scotparl next year.

I’ve written to the First Minister this morning 👇🏽

I will continue to serve the First Minister, the Government and my constituents to the best of my ability until May 2026. pic.twitter.com/oNV4DGoelF
— Kate Forbes MSP (@_KateForbes) August 4, 2025

How many MSPs have stood down at each election?

So far, the total for 2026 is 35 MSPs (as of 8 July 2025). This beats the previous high of 34 in 2021, which included former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson.

And back in 2016, there were 25 MSPs who stood down (23 who retired and 2 who were deselected by their parties). Among the retirees at this election were former First Minister Alex Salmond, former Scottish Conservative leader Annabelle Goldie and the Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick.

A similar number stepped down at the election before. Among the 20 who retired in 2011 were former Deputy First Minister Nichol Stephen and former Scottish Green co-convenor.

Just 13 MSPs retired in 2007 including independent MSP Dennis Canavan and former Deputy First Minister Jim Wallace.

And in 2003, there were 10 MSPs who stepped down including our shortest-serving First Minister Henry McLeish and Westminster’s 1967 Hamilton by-election winner, the SNP’s Winnie Ewing.

Each year the number has gone up:

2026 – 35

2021 – 34

2016 – 25

2011 – 20

2007 – 13

2003 – 10

IMAGE: Via Scottish Government (lisence)

How many MSPs are retiring in 2026? Is it a record number?

By Richard Wood

UPDATE: There are now 35 MSPs stepping down in 2026 following the announcement by Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes.

The late June announcement of Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone’s retirement from Holyrood means that 34 MSPs are stepping down from the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

This figure matches the number of retiring MSPs in 2021. That was the record-high number, meaning that any further announcements will ensure that 2026 has the highest number of retiring MSPs in Holyrood history. Considering the last retirement announcements for 2021 were in March that year, it’s almost certain that 2026 will mark a new record.

That’s perhaps not surprising, with the number of long-standing MSPs from the so-called 1999 club calling it a day, including Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rhoda Grant, Fiona Hyslop and Christine Graeme all stepping down. But it also includes newer MSPs including Humza Yousaf, Mairi Gougeon and Beatrice Wishart.

Age plays a role for some of these MSPs in both categories. As does arguably scandal, with Michael Matheson set to retire as well. Then there’s the wholly valid reason of some MSPs saying they want to spend time raising their young families, away from the demanding nature of a parliamentary role.

How many MSPs have stood down at each election?

So far, the total for 2026 is 34 MSPs (as of 3 July 2025). This matches the previous high of 34 in 2021, which included former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson.

A similar number stepped down at the election before. Among the 20 who retired in 2011 were former Deputy First Minister Nichol Stephen and former Scottish Green co-convenor.

Just 13 MSPs retired in 2007 including independent MSP Dennis Canavan and former Deputy First Minister Jim Wallace.

And in 2003, there were 10 MSPs who stepped down including our shortest-serving First Minister Henry McLeish and Westminster’s 1967 Hamilton by-election winner, the SNP’s Winnie Ewing.

Each year the number has gone up.

2026 – 34*
2021 – 34
2016 – 25
2011 – 20
2007 – 13
2003 – 10
1999 – N/A

*As of July 2025.

Which MSPs are stepping down in 2026?

As of late June 2026, the following 32 MSPs are stepping down:

SNP

Annabelle Ewing, Audrey Nicoll, Bill Kidd, Christine Grahame, Elena Witham, Evelyn Tweed, Fergus Ewing, Fiona Hyslop, Gordon MacDonald, Graeme Dey, Humza Yousaf, James Dornan, Joe FitzPatrick, Mairi Gougeon, Michael Matheson, Michelle Thomson, Natalie Don-Innes, Nicola Sturgeon, Richard Lochead, Rona Mackay, Ruth Maguire, Shona Robinson, Willie Coffey.

Conservatives

Douglas Ross, Edward Mountain, Liz Smith, Maurice Golden, Oliver Mundell.

Labour

Alex Rowley, Richard Leonard.

Liberal Democrats

Beatrice Wishart.

Greens

Alison Johnstone.

Independents

John Mason.

What about 2031?

We’re still along way from the election after 2026. Much will depend on the make-up of the new parliament – with big questions still to be answered like how well will Reform do next year? Will there be a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement? And if John Swinney emerges as First Minister will he step down before 2031 (when he’ll be 67)?

But with so many of the 1999 club now having left Holyrood’s benches, there’s a decent chance that 2031 will be the first election where the number of retiring MSPs is lower than the previous one.

Dual mandates ban passed unanimously in Scottish Parliament

By Richard Wood

The Scottish Parliament has today (Tuesday 17 December 2024) unanimously passed amendments to ban dual mandates, also known as double jobbing, in Scotland. The amendments were proposed by Graham Simpson MSP who has been pushing the issue for sometime.

The changes will not be immediate. But regulations are set to be introduced in 2025 followed by consultation ahead of a ban in time for the 2026 Holyrood elections.

A win for Scottish democracy campaigners

This is a major win for improving Scottish democracy and effective representation that almost happened by accident.

Dual mandates are ultimately unfair on constituents who deserve full-time dedicated representatives at Holyrood. Not part-time MSPs.

Had Stephen Flynn MP not announced his intentions to double job, we have to wonder if we’d be here?

READ MORE: Why we need to ban dual mandates

Dual mandates ban by 2026 backed by the Scottish Government

By Richard Wood

Rules preventing MSPs from also holding seats in Westminster are now almost certain to come into force.

The Scottish Government has backed a ban proposed by a Conservative MSP and supported by a Green MSP.

After Graham Simpson MSP retabled his amendments to the Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill, the Scottish Government has worked with him to table new amendments which state that “Scottish Ministers must lay before the Scottish Parliament a draft of a Scottish statutory instrument containing regulations which (a) make provision to the effect that a person is disqualified from membership of the Scottish Parliament if that person is a member of the House of Commons.

What does this mean?

Simply put, it’s a victory for the campaign to ban dual mandates though there’s still some time before the ban is implemented.

Dual mandates are bad for effective representation. Constituents deserve representatives working full-time for them in parliament. Not part-time MSPs.

What next?

If the amendments pass, the Scottish Government will be introducing a consultation in 2025, with a ban set to come into force ahead of the 2026 elections if all goes to plan.

Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill set to return on 17 December 2024

By Richard Wood

The third stage of the Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill will be debated on Tuesday 17 December.

This potentially gives an opportunity for MSPs to ban dual mandates, disqualifing MSPs from holding seats in Westminster at while representating constituents at Holyrood.

Graham Simpson MSP retabled his amendment to do this after the furore over Stephen Flynn MP planning on holding a dual mandate until 2029 if elected to Holyrood in 2026. So far, his amendments (one relating to the Commons and one the Lords) are the only ones that have been tabled, with the deadline on Tuesday 10 December for further amendments.

MSPs deserve to debate these proposals and should ultimately vote to ban dual mandates once and for all.

Are dual mandates banned in Northern Ireland for MLAs and MPs?

By Richard Wood

When an MP holds another elected role, such as MSP, they are said to hold a dual mandate. As with second jobs more generally, this is problematic as constituents deserve full-time representatives. Not part-timers.

The issue has been in the spotlight again with SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn planning to hold a dual mandate if selected to run for the Scottish Parliament in 2026 and ultimately become an MSP – until rescinding his bid on Thursday evening.

Momentum is building against dual mandates in Scotland but other parts of the UK already have dual mandate bans in place.

Northern Ireland is one of them.

What are the rules on dual mandate bans in Northern Ireland?

The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 legislated to explicitly prevent members of the Northern Ireland Assembly (MLAs) from also being MPs. It also bans MLAs from being members of the Dáil Éireann (TDs) in the Republic of Ireland.

The Local Government Act (Northern Ireland) 2014 takes this ban further, outlining that councillors cannot be MPs, MLAs, peers of members of any other legislative body.

Momentum is building against dual mandates following Stephen Flynn’s bid to enter Holyrood in 2026.

MPs and MSPs should recognise this and legislate to ban dual mandates in Scotland.

Image via Pixabay

Are dual mandates or “double jobbing” banned in Scotland?

By Richard Wood

The issue of dual mandates, which is when a politicians holds two political positions at once such as MP and MSP, has risen its head again.

Currently, there is only one dual mandate holder in the Scottish Parliament: Katy Clark of Scottish Labour. Although in fairness to Clark, she is on leave from her duties as a member of the House of Lords so in practice she essentially holds a single mandate. The problems with the unelected House of Lords are a whole discussion on their own.

But SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins have both put forward their names to stand for Holyrood in 2026 and remain MPs.

It is worth highlighting here that the SNP criticised the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross for holding both positions until the 2024 UK General Election when he lost his Westminster seat.

No matter the party, dual mandates are wrong.

Simply put, voters deserve full-time MPs. Not part-timers.

Are dual mandates banned in Scotland?

In short, being an MP and MSP is not mutually exclusive as shown by Ross holding a dual mandate until earlier this year. Dual mandates are not banned in Scotland.

That said, momentum is building against them, particularly following Flynn’s 2026 election announcement.

Either the Scottish Parliament or Westminster could legislate on this by setting out the qualifying rules for MPs and MSPs.

There’s already precedent for this in the United Kingdom with both Westminster and the Senedd setting out rules on dual mandates.

The issue of dual mandates is one that should be addressed right now while the impact will be limited. They need banned before 2026.

Will Holyrood or Westminster get there first?

Image via Pixabay

MSP retables amendment to ban dual mandates by 2026

By Richard Wood

A ban on MSPs also being able to serve as MPs has moved one step closer thanks to Conservative MSP Graham Simpson’s retabled amendment to the Scottish Elections (Representation and Reform) Bill.

The amendment follows SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn announcing his intentions to stand for Holyrood in 2026 and hold a dual mandate until 2029.

Simpson initially tabled the amendment at stage 2, but didn’t push it after being offered a potential consultation on the matter in the future. He will now retable at stage 3 following the momentum building against “double jobbing” in recent weeks.

Holyrood Magazine reports that Scottish Labour and the Scottish Greens would back the amendment. Liberal Democrats have said in the past they would support a dual mandates ban.

What’s wrong with dual mandates?

The roles of MP and MSP are full-time positions. Voters deserve full-time dedicated representatives. Not part-timers.

The case for a dual mandates ban is one of principles and practicalities. For effective representation to happen, not to mention travelling between three locations and handling casework directly relating to two layers of government, MPs and MSPs should focus on the day job of representating constituents in one clear capacity.

Dual mandates should be banned.

What next?

The BBC reports that a vote on the amendment could come before Christmas 2024. If all opposition MSPs unite on the matter, then a dual mandates ban could become a reality.

Parliamentary Business Minster Jamie Hepburn has said he supports a consultation on the issue but there’s a chance the legislation wouldn’t come into force until after 2026 if parliament went down that route.

Analysis

This shouldn’t be a party political issue. Whether it’s the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross or Labour and Lib Dem MPs and MSPs past, dual mandates fail to meet the standards required to deliver effective representation.

And yet there’s a clear party political slant to the way this is coming about – opposition parties coming together amid an SNP divided on this issue due to one of their own paving to double job despite past party opposition.

It’s also worth highlighting that this probably wouldn’t be happening had Douglas Ross retained his seat in Westminster, as well as his leadership of the party.

Perhaps this change in this way is inevitable with dual mandates not currently being widespread across different parties and Scottish politics being so divided.

That said, a dual mandates ban will be welcome. MSPs should vote for this when the time comes.

Unlock Democracy backs campaign to engage with Modernisation Committee to clean up politics

By Richard Wood

Unlock Democracy has backed my motion to engage with the Modernisation Committee on issues including second job restrictions for MPs and creating job descriptions for parliamentarians.

The Modernisation wants to hear from people about what additional ideas they have for work it could take forward, covering the strategic aims of: driving up standards; improving culture and working practices; and reforming Parliamentary procedures to make the House of Commons more effective.

Policy Motion 1: Working with the Modernisation Committee

Proposer: Richard Wood

Seconder: Rebecca Warren

The AGM notes:

The Government has revived the House of Commons Modernisation Committee. This is a cross-party committee of MPs that will consider ‘reforms to House of Commons procedures, standards, and working practices’.

The Committee’s remit overlaps with aspects of Unlock Democracy’s ‘Cleaning Up Politics’ campaign, such as setting limits on MPs’ second jobs and establishing a job description for MPs. Cleaning up politics was ranked as Unlock Democracy’s second most important campaign by supporters in the 2023 Annual Survey.

Unlock Democracy has started establishing a relationship with the Committee. Director Tom Brake questioned the Committee’s chair, Lucy Powell MP, at the Labour Party Conference about the Committee’s work on MPs’ second jobs.

The Committee has agreed to circulate our paper on MPs second jobs, and has invited us to respond to their call for views from stakeholders later in the year.

The AGM welcomes that:

Unlock Democracy has identified this Committee as important for achieving many of our campaign goals

Unlock Democracy has begun building a relationship with the Committee

Unlock Democracy has compiled a list of campaign asks for the Modernisation Committee to consider

The AGM calls on Unlock Democracy:

To respond to the Committee’s consultation with stakeholders

To get in touch with MPs on the Committee with suggestions for improving the House of Commons’ procedures and standards

To involve Unlock Democracy’s members and supporters in efforts to influence the Committee

To work with other organisations in the democracy sector, where beneficial, to influence the Committee.