SNP could win unrepresentative majority on 29% of the vote, suggests MRP poll

The latest MRP poll for the Scottish Parliament elections puts the SNP on course for a majority of seats on just 29% (list) and 34% (constituency) of the vote.

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Labour: 17 (-5)
🟢 Greens: 14 (+6)
🟣 Reform: 14 (+14)
🔵 Conservatives: 9 (-22)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 8 (+4)

MRP polling is a way to use a small survey with population data to estimate what a whole population thinks by adjusting the results to reflect different types of people in the real world.

The new MRP, conducted by Find Out Now for the National newspaper (13 – 31 March), adds to the current polling trend putting the SNP on track for winning a seat-share that far outstrips their vote-shares.

Its worth highlighting that while Find Out Now/the National projects that this would give the SNP a majority, others suggest they fall short such as Devolved Elections Project. But even in this projection, 61 seats is still a seat-share that doesn’t reflect vote-shares, highlighting the need for change.

This is highly unrepresentative and highlights the need to reform Scotland’s Additional Member System.

Full results:

SNP: 34% constituency, 29% list (67 seats including 67 constituency, 0 list)

Labour: 18% constituency, 17% list (17 seats: 1 constituency, 16 list)

Reform: 15% constituency, 16% list (14 seats (0 constituency, 14 list)

Greens: 9% constituency, 14% list (14 seats: 0 constituency, 14 list)

Conservatives: 10% constituency, 10% list (9 seats: 0 constituency, 9 list)

Liberal Democrats: 10% constituency, 10% list (8 seats: 5 constituency, 3 list)

We’re on track for the most unrepresentative Scottish Parliament

Scotland is on track for a highly unrepresentative election. It’s early days in the short campaign, but recent polls including this one highlight a major mismatch between seats and votes is on its way.

This unrepresentativeness is driven by the dominance of constituency seats in the Additional Member System combined with the SNP expected to do extreme well on those seats on a vote share that fails to account fully for that success.

These polls, and the election result when it comes, must be a wake up call for Scotland’s politicians. The Additional Member System needs reform at a minimum and replacement ideally to ensure seats match votes and voters have power over candidates elected.

First Past the Post is driving disproportionality in Scotland’s chamber. The seventh Parliament must improve democracy in Scotland once and for all.

New poll projection puts SNP on 62 seats with just a third of the vote

By Richard Wood

The latest poll for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election continues the trend of the SNP coming close to winning a majority of seats on around a third of votes. Talk about unrepresentative democracy.

The poll for Norstat (30 March – 1 April) found 30% of voters would back the SNP in their constituency while 34% would support them on the regional list.

Notably, the poll puts Reform on 15% of the constituency and list vote, down four points from the previous poll in February.

The main headline of this poll should be these unrepresentative seat projections, adding to an emerging trend, suggesting that the SNP are significantly down on their 2021 vote but are estimated to win three seats shy of a majority.

Ballot Box Scotland projects that these numbers would give the SNP 62 seats. Labour would be on 20, Reform on 14, the Greens on a record 12, the Lib Dems on their best result since 2007 with 10, and the Conservatives down from second place to fifth with 11 seats.

While the Sunday Times, who commissioned the poll, project 57 seats for the SNP. This is slightly more representative than the BBS projection but still vastly inflates the party’s support.

What’s causing this projected disproportionality?

This divergence of seats and votes is driven by the imbalance of constituency and list seats in the Scottish Parliament. 73 out of the 129 seats are elected via First Past the Post, meaning that a party can do well winning lots of these even if their vote share doesn’t reflect their success in winning seats. This is compounded by the limited number of list seats available, meaning other parties can’t be compensated for the SNP winning more seats via constituencies than they would be entitled to if all seats were allocated proportionality.

Ballot Box Scotland estimates that if seats were allocated by the proportional list element alone, then the SNP would be on 44 seats, a seat share far more representative than what is currently projected.

With the election campaign now underway, there’s a very real chance the polls could change. But as things stand, Holyrood is on track for the most unrepresentative Parliament in its history.

The next Scottish Parliament must review its voting system and commit to reform in order to improve proportionality and voter power over candidates.

This poll further highlights another reason to address the Additional Member System’s flaws and upgrade Scottish democracy.